Barclays Capital analyst raises 2010 global solar installation forecast to 11GW, Germany to 5.8GW


Industry demand checks and recent German PV installation figures have seen Barclays Capital analyst, Vishal Shah raise his forecast for global solar installations for 2010. In a research note to investment clients, Shah expects installations to reach approximately 11GW this year. Shah also noted that PV installations reached 7.2GW in 2009, an increase of 21% over 2008, when installations reached 5.95GW.

German installations are now expected to reach approximately 5.8GW in 2010, up from 3.8GW in 2009. However, the Barclays Capital analyst expects that first-half year installations in the country will reach 3.8GW alone and 2GW installed in the second-half of 2010, suggesting that the expected feed-in tariff changes will impact installations but not result in a collapse in the German market.

Indeed, Shah is expecting that the fall-off in demand in Germany can be offset by shipments strength from other markets such as Japan, Italy, France, US, China, Canada, Czech Republic and other European markets.

In particular, the Canadian market is expected to increase sequentially through at least the first three quarters of the year, with a forecast for the year of installations reaching 317MW, an increase of 273% compared to 85MW projected for 2009.

The French market also remains strong, forecasting PV installations to increase 169% in 2010 to 497MW. Shah also noted that the Italian market is once again picking up and could result in installations reaching over 1GW this year. Preliminary official figures in Italy put installations at 582MW in 2009.

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