According to independent industry advisory firm AECEA PV installations in the second quarter of 2017 in China could reach between 16-17GW, pushing first half year figures to a new record high of over 24GW, compared to around 21GW in the prior year period.
Unlike the second half of 2016, which experienced a significant demand curtailment in China after the end of June feed-in tariff (FiT) reductions, programs such as ‘Top Runner’ and ‘Poverty Alleviation’ schemes could limit much of last year’s demand slump impact, notably PV module ASP declines globally of over 25%.
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In its most recent report, AECEA noted that “aggressive demand” for project tenders existed in China ahead of the June 30 FiT changes, estimated to be around 8GW, equating to around a 3GW increase over the first quarter of 2017. AECEA also noted that an unnamed major PV inverter manufacturer had stopped overseas shipments to meet domestic demand in the last quarter.
Coupled to an expected 5.5GW of Top Runner project deadlines at the end of September, 2017 and a government target of 8GW of Poverty Alleviation schemes through the year, China is increasingly looking like exceeding the record 34.54GW government figures for installations in 2016.
As a result of the demand in China, AECEA believes the country is on target to exceed its 13th Five-Year-Plan (2016-2020) cumulative solar install target of 105GW by the end of 2017.
China National Energy Administration (NEA) is expected to release official solar install figures for the first half of 2017, soon.