Deutsche Bank predicts imminent upturn for solar industry

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email

The solar industry is on the brink of a sustained period of momentum, according to a bullish research note by Deutsche Bank published on Wednesday.

The report predicts that a re-balance in the supply and demand of polysilicon, the growth of new markets and stablising module prices will make 2014 a pivotal year in the industry’s development.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

“We believe the solar sector is at an inflection point and industry fundamentals are likely to improve further into 2014,” states the report.

“The sector has passed the tipping point for grid parity in more than ten major markets worldwide and will likely maintain this momentum even with elevated poly prices. As module prices stabilise around $0.60-$0.70/W, levelised cost of solar electricity without subsidies is now 10-20c/kWh in several major regions of the world. Rising electricity prices, a need for competitive generation sources and lowered balance of system costs will drive further improvement over the next several years.”

According to the research note, demand for polysilicon could outstrip supply by 2014 with the glut of polysilicon swallowed up and much production capacity, particularly in China, going offline.

The bank predicts a rise in module prices levelling off at around US$0.70 per Watt due to the impact of tariffs on Chinese cells entering Europe in the third quarter of 2013 and the levies on Taiwanese products entering the US.

Many large PV manufacturers have seen their share prices shoot upwards during the past month and Deutsche bank expects this to continue. 

“Despite the strong year-to-date performance, we believe the solar rally has legs. Demand outlook is improving due to strong demand from Japan, China, US and other emerging markets. The supply situation is also a lot better in our view – Chinese tier two/three supply cuts have accelerated over the past 18 months and supply from large Chinese companies such as STP, LDK has decreased sharply, particularly in markets outside of China,” it predicts.

“With the potential resolution of EU/US/China tariff uncertainty, we expect relatively stable pricing, improving margins and further sector consolidation to drive gradual profitability improvement, which in turn could act as the next set of catalysts for solar stocks.”

Bloomberg New Energy Finance has also expressed optimism about solar share prices.

Read Next

Premium
October 10, 2025
Gaëtan Masson of IEA PVPS warns of overcapacity, collapsing prices and slipping module quality in the new Trends in PV Applications report.
October 10, 2025
The European solar module market has reached a “state of equilibrium” in recent weeks, with stable prices and regular demand.
October 10, 2025
US solar recycling firm OnePlanet has achieved the R2v3 certification from electronics sustainability non-profit SERI, which represents the “highest standards of traceability”.
October 10, 2025
NTPC Renewable Energy Limited has signed an MoU with the Government of Gujarat to develop 15GW renewable energy projects in Gujarat.
October 10, 2025
Australia's renewable energy sector recorded its slowest month of the year for additions in September, with 5.8GW of new projects added to development pipelines, according to data from Rystad Energy.
October 9, 2025
The Australian government has announced the results of the fourth Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) tender, with 6.6GW of renewables awarded long-term contracts.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
October 21, 2025
New York, USA
Solar Media Events
November 25, 2025
Warsaw, Poland
Solar Media Events
December 2, 2025
Málaga, Spain
Solar Media Events
February 3, 2026
London, UK