Delays, disputes and elections to slow India solar growth, predict analysts

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on email

Analysts have predicted slow growth for India’s solar market this year due to delays in implementing its waning national solar mission.

The national solar mission (JNNSM) in India has a target for 1.1GW to be installed during the fiscal year 2013-14, and an overall target for 20GW by 2022.

Solar analyst, Bridge to India has compared installations globally to find JNNSM lacking. Globally, 39GW was installed in 2013, China installed 12GW last year with a national target of 35GW by 2015. Japan and the US installed 4GW last year.

Bridge to India also predicts a lacklustre year due to State solar policy and a slow start for the JNNSM’s phase II.

The JNNSM phase II draft was released in December 2012, but final calls for bids were not until a year later, December 2013 – PPA signings have also been delayed.

Energy market research firm, Mercom Capital Group predicts 1GW to be installed in India for 2014 – stagnant with 1,004MW installed in 2013, and 986MW in 2012.

Mercom predicts slow growth as no national solar projects are to come online until mid 2015 and “CSP projects have stalled” adding State solar policies are “all over the map”, as India also becomes a hotbed for a bubbling trade dispute with the US.

Mercom said “difficulties with project economic viability stemming from reverse auctions that have pushed down project margins”, the lack of implementation for a Renewable Purchase Obligation, and a national election on the way, are causing tremors in India’s solar market.

However in light of rising diesel prices, Raj Prabhu, CEO and co-founder of Mercom Capital Group said the solar market in India “looks better and better every day”, adding that “the case for solar in India will remain strong as long as the relevant policy goals address power shortages that affect millions of Indians, businesses, industries and agriculture,” said Prabhu.

The mandatory domestic content requirement is one policy that is being debated as earlier this week, the Indian government revealed the financial bid results for its auction for 750MW of solar energy, as part of JNNSM Phase II, with trade disputing US firm, First Solar missing out.

First Solar has previously dominated India’s thin-film market via a loophole in previous JNNSM bids, now closed, which did not include thin-film modules under the domestic content requirement (DCR). The company has worked with the US Export-Import Bank on a number of projects in India.

In September 2013, solar energy consultant, Bridge to India, published its solar ‘industry map’, revealing 42% of modules used in India are thin-film modules, with US-based First Solar taking the highest market share and Canadian Solar the highest of crystalline silicon modules.

In August 2012 local sustainability think-tank the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) accused US thin-film manufacturers of exploiting the DCR “loop hole” to “ruin” the Indian domestic PV industry. CSE researchers claimed 80% of India’s manufacturing capacity was in disarray, forced to close or seek debt restructuring as a result.

The US filed a complaint to the World Trade Organisation earlier this month claiming that it should have equal access to India's procurement round. 

On the subject of the impact of the US trade dispute, Bridge to India analyst Jasmeet Khurana previously said First Solar had missed out “only based on the bid submitted by them. There are no political considerations. India is not that investment unfriendly”.

26 January 2022
Join this free webinar for our analysis of the growth of N-Type technology including; new capacity expansions and production output. We'll also be looking at the global manufacturing footprint with forecasts on how much product will be made outside of China this year and which companies are driving technology change across the crystalline silicon value chain.
23 February 2022
Held annually since 2016, the Energy Storage Summit Europe is the place to be for senior stakeholders in the European storage industry. Designed to accelerate deployment of storage, we examine evolving chemistries, business models, project design, revenue stacks and use cases for storage. The 2022 edition will include exclusive content around longer duration solutions, energy strategies for wide-scale deployment of EVs and "EnTech", the event which sits at the intersection of digitisation, decentralisation and decarbonation of the power system. Come to meet TSOs, DSOs, Utilities, Developers, Investors and Lenders and leave with new contacts, partners and a wealth of information.
7 March 2022
Take your chance to join the most powerful platform in the MENA region. Middle East Energy (MEE), Intersolar, and ees, the leading energy exhibitions are joining hands to co-deliver an outstanding renewables and energy storage event at Middle East Energy 2021. Renewables and energy storage at MEE is the largest gathering of solar and renewable energy industry professionals in the Middle East & Africa, offering the most effective trade focused platform to international manufacturers and distributors looking to meet regional buyers.
8 March 2022
As Solar Finance & Investment enters its ninth year, we sit on the cusp of a new power market with solar at its heart. The 2022 edition of the event will build on our years of expertise and relationships to bring investors and lenders together with top developers. Connect with leaders in the field and use exclusive insights to drive investment and development decisions for the future. Meet new and existing project partners at the largest gathering of European solar investors and lenders.
23 March 2022
When it comes to storage, the US market exceeded a gigawatt of advanced energy storage installations (weighted towards lithium ion) at 1.46 GW, more than the previous six years in total! An exponential growth rate could see the market hit 7.5 GW p.a. by 2025. The summit will provide a wealth of content around this vital piece in the US power puzzle, with sessions dedicated to explore how companies are making money from batteries, the latest chemistries and their applications as they apply to different use-cases. We ask how investors can match ESG criteria to batteries and we will bring case studies of successful deployment and project execution onto the stage to examine how you can ensure your own projects are successful.
29 March 2022
Now in its 10th sell-out year, Large Scale Solar returns to Lisbon in 2022. We are excited to gather together face-to-face with the European solar industry as we provide unique and exclusive access to a powerful selection of the market's key stakeholders. Join this elite summit to find out how the market is maturing, which new markets are becoming more exciting, how technology is evolving and who's driving the market forward into the 2020s. Always senior, packed with developers, EPCs, utilities and investors this is the event for companies serious about European solar PV.

Read Next

January 18, 2022
Hive Hydrogen and Linde plc have teamed up to establish the “world’s largest green ammonia export plant” in Nelson Mandela Bay, South Africa that will have a 780,000 ton/year production capacity.
January 18, 2022
Corporate funding in the global solar sector reached a ten-year high in 2021 as the industry recovered from a COVID-affected 2020, new research from Mercom Capital Group reveals.
January 17, 2022
A round-up of the latest projects news, including EDP Renewables completing Indiana’s largest PV project, two Gulf utility companies pricing their first green bonds and an Australian utility linking its project to the national grid.
January 17, 2022
US independent power producer DESRI is planning to raise up to US$100 million in an initial public offering (IPO) that will see the company listed on the Nasdaq.
January 17, 2022
Solar module manufacturer Seraphim has launched its new S5 series of high-efficiency PV modules with a maximum power output of up to 670W and an efficiency of 21.57%.
January 17, 2022
Oman has signed an agreement with energy major bp that will support the potential development of multiple gigawatts of renewables and green hydrogen in the Middle Eastern country by 2030.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
January 26, 2022
Free Webinar
Solar Media Events
February 23, 2022
London, UK
Solar Media Events
March 8, 2022
London, UK
Solar Media Events
March 23, 2022
Austin, Texas, USA
Solar Media Events
March 29, 2022
Lisbon, Portugal