NEM data spotlight: Record generation meets wild price swings in Australia’s NEM in November

Distributed solar systems generated between 73-126GWh daily, while utility-scale installations peaked at just 82GWh on 24 November. This consistent outperformance demonstrates that Australia’s rooftop solar capacity has reached a critical mass, fundamentally altering the NEM’s generation landscape.

As detailed in the chart above, sourced from Open Electricity (formerly OpenNEM), 27 November marked the month’s peak rooftop performance at 126GWh, coinciding with relatively modest utility-scale output of 67GWh.

This created a 1.9:1 average ratio throughout November, demonstrating how distributed generation has become the primary solar contributor to Australia’s electricity grid, generating nearly twice the output of purpose-built solar PV power plants.

The generation data reveals significant daily volatility that correlates with November’s extreme pricing events. 16 November recorded the month’s lowest combined solar output at just 128GWh, with both segments performing poorly – utility-scale at 43GWh and rooftop at 85GWh.

This low-generation day contrasts sharply with 27 November’s peak performance of 193GWh combined output, representing a 65GWh swing in total solar generation.

22 November showed the smallest generation gap between segments, with rooftop solar producing 73GWh against utility-scale’s 60GWh – a 1.2:1 ratio.

The consistent 53GWh spread in rooftop generation (73-126GWh range) compared to utility-scale’s 39GWh spread (43-82GWh range) indicates that distributed solar exhibits greater weather sensitivity and geographic diversity effects.

The mid-month surge from 10-13 November, where rooftop solar averaged 115GWh while utility-scale remained stable around 61GWh, demonstrates that rooftop installations may be better positioned to capture optimal solar conditions during favourable weather periods.

November 2025 solar generation marks historic peak performance

Analysis of generation data from April 2024 through November 2025 reveals November 2025 as a watershed moment, with utility-scale solar achieving its highest monthly output on record while rooftop solar approached peak performance levels.

November 2025 delivered exceptional performance across both solar segments, with utility-scale generation reaching 1,815GWh – a remarkable 15.8% increase from November 2024’s 1,568GWh.

This represents the third highest monthly utility-scale output recorded across the entire 20-month dataset. Rooftop solar generated 3,119GWh, marking an 11.6% year-over-year increase from November 2024’s 2,796GWh, though falling just short of December 2024’s record 3,347GWh.

The year-over-year comparison reveals significant capacity expansion and improved performance optimisation. November 2024 to November 2025 saw combined solar generation increase from 4,364GWh to 4,934 GWh – a substantial 570GWh boost representing 13.1% growth across both segments.

Seasonal analysis reveals November 2025’s positioning within typical generation cycles.

The rooftop segment, although it did not reach its December 2024 peak of 3,347GWh, demonstrated remarkable consistency with October 2025’s performance at 3,039GWh.

The data exposes interesting divergences in growth patterns between segments. Utility-scale solar showed more dramatic seasonal variations, ranging from 887GWh in June 2024 to a record 1,815GWh in November 2025 – a 104% spread. Rooftop solar exhibited an even greater range, spanning from June 2024’s 1,248GWh to December 2024’s 3,347GWh – a 168% spread.

November 2025’s performance becomes even more significant when viewed against the broader 2025 trajectory.

Following the typical winter in June 2025 (1,028.4GWh utility-scale, 1,446GWh rooftop), both segments demonstrated strong recovery through spring. The utility-scale segment’s 76.5% increase from June to November 2025 substantially exceeded the 52.7% increase observed during the same period in 2024.

November price extremes expose solar market divergence

Solar pricing across Australia’s NEM experienced unprecedented volatility during November, with data revealing dramatic price swings and significant divergences between utility-scale and rooftop solar segments.

The month’s most striking event occurred on 26 November, when both utility-scale and rooftop solar prices converged at extraordinary levels, reaching AU$328.70/MWh and AU$329.39/MWh respectively. This convergence represented the highest pricing recorded for both segments throughout the month.

Negative pricing events highlighted contrasting market dynamics between solar segments.

Rooftop solar systems experienced negative prices on 11 separate days, nearly double the frequency of utility-scale installations, which recorded negative pricing on seven occasions.

The most severe negative pricing occurred on 21 November, when rooftop solar dropped to -AU$24.40/MWh while utility-scale solar maintained positive pricing at AU$54.26/MWh – a stark contrast demonstrating different market pressures.

25 November showcased the month’s largest price differential, with utility-scale solar peaking at AU$120.04/MWh while rooftop solar fell to -AU$18.13/MWh, creating a remarkable AU$138.17/MWh spread between segments.

The data revealed rooftop solar’s greater susceptibility to price volatility, with the segment recording both the month’s highest price at AU$329.39/MWh on 26 November and lowest at -AU$24.40/MWh on 21 November, representing a total range of AU$353.79/MWh.

Utility-scale solar demonstrated relatively more stable pricing patterns, ranging from AU$328.70/MWh to its lowest recorded price, though it still experienced significant fluctuations throughout the period.

You can explore previous solar generation performance in our NEM data spotlight series, with all entries available to PV Tech Premium subscribers.