The top 50 module manufacturers are to add 10GW of new production capacity in 2014, predicts PV Pulse.
PV Pulse, GTM Research’s new upstream data service covering the global PV value chain, has predicted module manufacturing capacity additions for 2014. It predicts 10GW of new capacity to be added in 2014 and a profitable year ahead for PV.
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The report states a new growth phase for the PV supply chain, as the industry recovers from a few years of over capacity lead downturn.
For 2014 there will be strong market growth from the top three global PV markets: China, Japan and the US – with just the 50 largest module suppliers predicted to add 10GW of additional capacity in 2014 alone, PV Pulse claimed.
Japan and China are expected to dominate module shipments, accounting for 57% of all shipments in 2014.
Overall, there will be 19% growth in global module production for 2014 and 20% for 2015, said PV Pulse.
Polysilicon, wafer and cell producers are also expected to have vast GW-scale expansions.
Polysilicon prices are expected to rise by 25% in 2014, with 83,000 metric tonnes of polysilicon capacity to be added by 2015.
Module production costs in China are set to stagnate in 2014, decreasing to US$0.37 per Watt by 2017. Headline names such as Jinko and Yingli will expand mainly through mergers and acquisitions of smaller Chinese companies.
New capacity spending is likely in new regions such as Malaysia and Taiwan, and also end-markets such as Brazil, South Africa and Japan, PV Pulse said.
“Conditions in the global PV supply chain are shifting rapidly towards a new growth phase for the industry,” said Shyam Mehta, lead upstream analyst at GTM Research.
Opposed to “profitless prosperity” over the last few years, Mehta predicts 2014 will see PV module vendors and their suppliers “enjoy not just growth in sales and shipment volumes, but achieve strong bottom-line profitability as well, with supply constraints leading to major capacity expansions across the PV value chain that will continue into 2015″.