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PV is a global market, but there are currently no global certification standards. As the module market space continues to expand in size and numbers of manufacturers, global regulatory groups are challenged to write and enforce global material and module standards. Currently material and module manufacturers are forced to certify, and develop, according to multiple regional requirements. For the material developer, regulatory approval on both materials and modules takes upwards of a year. As it cannot be conducted contiguous to other development steps, this is a ‘direct add-on’ to the time lag between innovation investment and the profit return.
The PV inverter industry did a good job limiting production and clearing excessive inventory levels in 2011. After over shipping about 3GW in 2010 to the global market place the inverter industry was able to meet 2011 installation demand via consumption of these excess plus new shipments. 2011 shipments were based on better demand-matched production rates then the year before when production constraints helped stimulate over ordering and over production later in the year.
Increasing panel efficiencies and power ratings represents a key deliverable from the PV industry today. These requirements are not simply long-term objectives for the industry as a whole: they are essential at the company level to differentiate leading suppliers within an overcrowded and highly competitive manufacturing environment.
Efficiency enhancements typically require changes in manufacturing process flow and materials (raw and consumable) used in production. Ideally, the technologies that drive these changes will be those featured within a technology roadmap.
SINGAPORE (ICIS)—Polysilicon spot prices in Asia are likely to be depressed for the first half of next year because tougher financing in debt-stricken Europe will dampen solar investments and the unfolding solar trade row between the US and China may affect the market, traders said.
PV-Tech recently announced that its most read blog post of 2011 was an article from IMS Research entitled ‘PV module costs and prices – what is really happening?’, written almost 18 months ago in August 2010. The popularity of this post clearly says something about what the PV industry was talking about throughout all of last year, and still will be talking about in 2012. Looking back now at the article I thought it would be interesting to revisit some of the predictions made versus what happened in reality, as well as considering what the future holds 12 months on.
Not withstanding the tumultuous year for solar cell and thin-film manufacturers, the top-10 rankings for 2011 saw only a few changes in position from 12 months ago. Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers maintained their prominence, securing 8 of the top-10 positions. But the number-one position in 2011 goes to First Solar, the only thin-film manufacturer on the list.
The simple answer is yes. Certainly enough modules and inverters were sold, and if installations really did hit 7.5GW in Germany then this would undoubtedly mean that at least 26GW was installed globally last year, with Germany retaining its position as the largest market, followed closely by Italy. We’re still finalising our data for 2011, but we now estimate up to 26.5GW could have been installed last year following the phenomenal year-end rally in Germany. This would have meant an incredible 10 GW was installed in the last quarter of the year – the first time this has ever happened and more than the whole amount installed in all of 2009!
The US International Trade Commission voted unanimously on Friday in a preliminary ruling on the antidumping petition filed by SolarWorld and five other companies calling for countervailing duties against Chinese solar companies. It’s officially ‘game on’ now as the US ITC will now proceed with a full investigation. But is it ‘game over’ for SolarWorld and those companies failing to lower their prices, open new solar electric markets, and compete to win?
According the Federal Network Agency, only 3.35 GWp of PV systems were installed in Germany in the first 9 months of 2011. In comparison to last year, this represents a market volume decrease of 40%. In 2010, 5.53 GWp were installed in September alone. Market experts currently estimate that the total additional installations in 2011 will amount to 5.5 GWp. This would mean that the German market would be in a state of regression for the first time, at 25% below the installation rate of the previous year.
While delivering GW-levels of manufacturing equipment during 2H’11 that is already surplus to market requirements is bad enough, excessive tool backlogs pose yet another worry that needs to be factored into revenue guidance for 2012.
