Deutsche Bank predicts imminent upturn for solar industry

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email

The solar industry is on the brink of a sustained period of momentum, according to a bullish research note by Deutsche Bank published on Wednesday.

The report predicts that a re-balance in the supply and demand of polysilicon, the growth of new markets and stablising module prices will make 2014 a pivotal year in the industry’s development.

“We believe the solar sector is at an inflection point and industry fundamentals are likely to improve further into 2014,” states the report.

“The sector has passed the tipping point for grid parity in more than ten major markets worldwide and will likely maintain this momentum even with elevated poly prices. As module prices stabilise around $0.60-$0.70/W, levelised cost of solar electricity without subsidies is now 10-20c/kWh in several major regions of the world. Rising electricity prices, a need for competitive generation sources and lowered balance of system costs will drive further improvement over the next several years.”

According to the research note, demand for polysilicon could outstrip supply by 2014 with the glut of polysilicon swallowed up and much production capacity, particularly in China, going offline.

The bank predicts a rise in module prices levelling off at around US$0.70 per Watt due to the impact of tariffs on Chinese cells entering Europe in the third quarter of 2013 and the levies on Taiwanese products entering the US.

Many large PV manufacturers have seen their share prices shoot upwards during the past month and Deutsche bank expects this to continue. 

“Despite the strong year-to-date performance, we believe the solar rally has legs. Demand outlook is improving due to strong demand from Japan, China, US and other emerging markets. The supply situation is also a lot better in our view – Chinese tier two/three supply cuts have accelerated over the past 18 months and supply from large Chinese companies such as STP, LDK has decreased sharply, particularly in markets outside of China,” it predicts.

“With the potential resolution of EU/US/China tariff uncertainty, we expect relatively stable pricing, improving margins and further sector consolidation to drive gradual profitability improvement, which in turn could act as the next set of catalysts for solar stocks.”

Bloomberg New Energy Finance has also expressed optimism about solar share prices.

18 October 2021
Intersolar South America, South America’s largest exhibition and conference for the solar industry, takes place at the Expo Center Norte in São Paulo, Brazil on October 18–20, 2021, and has a focus on the areas of photovoltaics, PV production and solar thermal technologies. At the accompanying Intersolar South America Conference, renowned experts shed light on hot topics in the solar industry.
19 October 2021
This year’s EV World Congress will hold a special role, not only as the first live EverythingEV event in over a year – a chance to renew your connections and re-engage with the EV sector face to face – but also as a chance to share insight and inspiration as world starts to look towards move on post COVID towards hitting ambitious decarbonisation goals in 2030 and beyond. As ever, we will be bringing world leading organisations, cities, and technology providers to the UK to inspire EV innovators, and delve into the challenges facing the sector as the UK looks to revolutionise road transport.
20 October 2021
Utility-scale solar is evolving, shaped by higher power modules and demand for increasingly lower levelised cost of electricity (LCOE). Those trends are also changing project requirements elsewhere, with inverters capable of delivering high power density and power capacity in strong demand. In this webinar, FIMER will detail how its innovative high-power, multi-MPPT string inverter and modular conversion solution can both meet those demands and transform the utility-scale solar sector for the better.
20 October 2021
The race is on but we need to sprint… With global climate talks fast approaching and time running out to prevent the most disastrous impacts of climate change, now is the time to act. The Summit will explore the opportunities that emerge from taking action on climate change and provide a clear pathway forward for governments, citizens and companies. Taking place just 10 days before the G20 meeting in Rome, on 30-31 of October, and in the lead up to the critical COP26 meeting in Glasgow from 31 October–12 November, this event will be instrumental in influencing ambitious global action.
10 November 2021
The solar tracker market continues to mature at breakneck speed, with designs and component selections becoming ever-more complex in the pursuit of better project economics. But a more simplistic design could deliver a triple benefit of lower Capex, EPC and Opex costs. This webinar will set out the ideal single axis tracker design for utility-scale solar farms. The design leapfrogs from decades of experience, with a comprehensive understanding and attention to the three cost structures of Capex, EPC and Opx. Sun and Steel Solar has prototyped a single axis tracker designed to deliver up to US$0.03/W in real savings compared to existing single axis trackers on the market. That’s US$30 million for every gigawatt deployed.
15 November 2021
The 10th edition of the famous Metallization and Interconnection Workshop, MIW2021, will take place in the Thor Central venue in Genk, Belgium, on Monday, November 15, and Tuesday, November 16, 2021 as a face-to-face meeting. We are longing for direct exchange of knowledge and ideas after a long time. Hopefully you can be part of it! But of course, the organizors will keep an eye on the evolution of the Covid pandemic. It will be assess carefully, whether the workshop can be held without major risks or excessive restrictions. We are looking forward to exciting talks, discussions and meetings and to welcoming you in Genk!

Read Next

October 15, 2021
US residential solar financier GoodLeap has raised US$800 million to expand into the broader market for sustainable home improvement, other carbon-reducing products and later commercial offerings and electric vehicles (EVs).
October 15, 2021
Doral Renewables has broken ground on the 1.65GWdc Mammoth Solar project in Indiana, set to be the US’ largest solar farm once complete.
October 15, 2021
European renewables investment management firm Greencoat Capital has confirmed its entry to the US renewables market and is plotting to invest up to US$5 billion over the next five years.
October 15, 2021
The European Commission (EC) has urged member states to accelerate solar deployment in order to tackle Europe’s rising electricity prices and has released a ‘toolbox’ to address the short-term impact of prices and strengthen resilience against future shocks
October 14, 2021
Europe’s most competitive renewable power purchase agreement (PPA) offers rose 8% quarter-on-quarter as Europe’s worsening energy crisis bites, according to US firm LevelTen Energy’s Q3 2021 PPA Price Index report.
October 14, 2021
JinkoSolar has laid claim to a new n-type monocrystalline silicon solar cell conversion efficiency record, taking that efficiency rating to 25.4%.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
October 19, 2021
BRISTOL, UK
Upcoming Webinars
November 10, 2021
8am (PST) | 5pm (CET)
Solar Media Events
December 1, 2021