EnergyTrend calls 2014 demand at 44GW with 2015 to top 50GW

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Taiwanese PV analyst EnergyTrend has estimated 2014 PV demand will reach 44GW with Japan and the US making up for a lower than expected figure in China.

The company does expect 2015 to top the 50GW mark at 51.4W with Japan, China and the US taking a 57% share. This share is less than in 2014 as a number of emerging markets start to make their presence felt in the overall figures.

EnergyTrend also made five predictions for 2015 as demand increases and the supplier landscape adjusts.

It estimates that polysilicon prices will hover between US$17-20 for the majority of the year, largely due to new, low-cost production increases. It estimates that competition among cell manufacturers will drive prices down leaving module makers with larger profit margins. By the end of 2015 it predicts module costs of US$0.43/W down from around US$0.60/W at present.

Cell efficiency improvements will be dominated by passivated emitter rear cell (PERC) technology, according to EnergyTrend.

The company also predicted that the top module manufacturers will need to break 3.5GW of shipments if they want a top-ten slot next year with the top producer potentially needing to ship more than 5GW.

Finally, EnergyTrend predicts that both upstream and downstream, the solar landscape will be more diversified as project developers look to reduce exposure to fickle government policy and manufacturers adjust to trade tariffs.

EnergyTrend had predicted 40-45GW of demand for 2014 at the start of the year, lower than the forecasts of Deutsche Bank (46GW) NPD Solarbuzz (49GW as of December 2013) and Yingli Green Energy (50GW).

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