European solar PV module prices stabilise in November, ahead of potential ‘oversupply situation’

Meanwhile, there were minor price falls for bifacial TOPCon modules—from €0.094/Wp to €0.09/Wp—and back contact modules—from €0.104/Wp to €0.101/Wp. The fall in prices for bifacial TOPCon modules specifically brings the average selling price of the module back to the same level reported in January, after a year that saw a sudden price spike in April to €0.105/Wp, and then months of consistent price decline

This is also the first time that the pv.index has tracked back contact prices specifically, and the price of such modules was immediately displaced from the height of the European industry seen in October, when back contact modules had the highest price. They have since been replaced by full black modules, with an average price of €0.104/Wp, the only type of module to see a month-on-month price increase.

All of these trends are shown in the graph above, compared to the PV purchasing managers’ index (PV PMI), a metric used to gauge purchasing sentiment among sun.store users. For the third consecutive month, the PV PMI held steady at 66—with any score above 50 indicating a broad confidence that the market will grow in the coming months—which sun.store says indicates a “balanced, confident market” and “consistent caution” in the module purchasing space.

“November reinforces the narrative of a market that has matured after a turbulent correction cycle,” explained Filip Kierzkowski, head of partnerships and trading at sun.store, whose comments follow a bottoming-out of the European PV module market in October. “Prices remain stable, and buyer behaviour is disciplined as we approach year’s end.”

However, there has been a slight uptick in buyer sentiment in recent months. While the overall PV PMI has remained stable at 66, the percentage of buyers who expect to purchase more modules in the coming months has slowly ticked upwards, from 45% in September to 46% in October and now 47% in November. While this remains much lower than the 58% of buyers who expected to add to their inventories in February—which drove a PV PMI of 73, the highest figure seen in the last 18 months—this slight improvement in buyer confidence is notable.

Chinese companies lead module brand rankings

The other component of the pv.index is a ranking of various module and inverter suppliers; in November, Chinese giant LONGi returned to the top spot of the solar panel brand rankings, displacing fellow Chinese industry leader Jinko. As is to be expected, the top five module manufacturers are all based in China, save for Canadian Solar, which saw its position jump from fifth to third between October and November.

Similarly, Chinese manufacturer Huawei sat atop the hybrid and string inverter rankings, displacing Deye in the hybrid inverter rankings and consolidating its months-long position atop the string inverter rankings. The inverter rankings are a little more geographically diverse than the module rankings, with Austrian firm Fronius and German manufacturer SMA Solar ranking in the top five for inverter manufacturers.

While the prices of on-grid inverters, and hybrid inverters larger than 15kW, increased between October and November, the prices of all inverters tracked by pv.index has fallen from the start of the year to November. The largest fall has been in hybrid inverters smaller than 15kW, which have seen prices decline from €123.97/kW in January to €98.74/kW in November.

Looking ahead, Kierzkowski said that sun.store is anticipating a build-up of module inventories among manufacturers, comments that reflect sentiment expressed in a guest blog for PV Tech last month, in which he considered the prospect of another oversupply situation hitting European solar.

“At the same time, we observe a build-up of module inventories on the manufacturer side, which typically leads to year-end sell-outs and targeted promotions—some of which are already appearing on sun.store,” he said.

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This story has been updated to correct an error in reporting the module supplier rankings.