German market is hot, but how hot?

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email

A seasonal end of year rush to beat the changes set to take place on tariffs in Germany is on, which is potentially being fuelled further by the continued speculation over further cuts in the FiT, due to the new German Government. Germany was expected to be the largest market in 2009 for new PV installations, after the collapse of the Spanish market last year. However, a prolonged winter and the continued fall-out from the financial crisis meant that installations in Germany may not have met earlier forecasts.

However, new data from the German ‘Bundesnetzagentur,’ highlights that from January to September 2009, 1.471GW of new installations were registered. With over 300MW installed in September, October and November and possibly December installations could be much higher, but by how much?

Taking the September actual installed figure of 327MW (rounded up), and simply extending that figure through the three remaining months would see the total installations reach 2.452GW.

Ironically, that would be close to the figure (2.5GW) actually installed in Spain last year and a new annual installation record for Germany.

Market research firms completely missed the jump in installations in Spain last year and the fear is that this could happen again but with the German market.

That said, Photon Consulting is projecting installations in Germany to reach 3.9GW in 2009, according to their just released ‘Solar Annual 2009: Total Eclipse’ bible sized PV market report.

The EPIA had projected installations in Germany could be between 2GW (moderate scenario) and 2.5GW, based on a ‘Policy Driven’ scenario, so there is much leverage to be exercised in projections.

Even if we take the Bundesnetzagentur figures and my ‘reasonable’ additional MW installations into account, we still don’t get any better visibility into whether the muted additional cuts in the German FiT would spark even greater numbers, even to the point of coming close to Photon’s forecast.

PV suppliers such as First Solar, recently highlighted that demand in Germany in the third quarter was ‘seasonally strong’ and overall demand for its thin film modules exceeded supply for Q4 installations. Crystalline silicon module manufacturers based in Germany also reported strong local demand and many were burning through inventory and back to full capacity in the third quarter.

The PV industry may have entered 2009 with a whimper but it’s starting to look like it will finish on a high. How high is impossible to predict but potentially much higher than many had projected.

We will be looking closely for revised figures from the major market research firms, which must be feverishly working on those spreadsheets, right about now.

23 August 2022
Intersolar South America, South America’s largest exhibition and conference for the solar industry, takes place at the Expo Center Norte in São Paulo, Brazil, on August 23–25, 2022, and has a focus on the areas of photovoltaics, PV production and solar thermal technologies. At the accompanying Intersolar South America Conference, renowned experts shed light on hot topics in the solar industry. In 2021 – despite the Covid-19 pandemic – Intersolar South America welcomed more than 28,000 visitors and over 1,000 conference attendees over 3 days. 200+ providers showcased their products. Combining local and international expertise, Intersolar South America brings together the PV and solar thermal sector to discuss the current status and strategic trends for Latin American PV markets, as well as technology innovations and new business opportunities. Overall, distributed generation is still driving momentum in the Brazilian market. Get 10% off with code 38LCF6KN
6 September 2022
Intersolar Mexico sits at the cross-section of photovoltaics, solar heating & cooling technologies, and energy storage. The event serves as the industry’s go-to source for invaluable technology trends and premier B2B contacts in the promising Mexican solar market. From September 6–8, 2022 Intersolar Mexico together with the co-located The GREEN Expo® and Aquatech Mexico will take place in Centro Citibanamex, Mexico City.
7 September 2022
The demand for rooftop solar PV is soaring, driven by falling costs of the technology against energy crises that are gripping countries globally. But while an increasing number of households turn to solar to generate their own electricity, there is now a need for more specialist equipment, technologies and services to ensure the solar transition can reach as many customers as possible. Delivering these is now a major challenge for rooftop solar installers. This webinar will analyse the characteristics of the rooftop solar market, discussing how the products, logistics, installation and servicing of solar systems has evolved in line with consumer demands.
14 September 2022
Join us in London for 2 days as we look at the UK’s new landscape for utility & rooftop solar. Understand the new opportunities within this GW-plus annual market!
15 September 2022
Bifacial PV modules will be the dominant solar PV technology globally within one or two years; in the utility-scale sector, their market share is already above 70%. This webinar will provide a clear view on the successful implementation of bifacial technology, maximizing system performance and minimising LCoE.
19 September 2022
RE+ 2022 is the umbrella event that includes SPI, ESI, RE+ Power, and RE+ Infrastructure. As North America's largest renewable energy event, it's a catalyst for industry innovation that's supercharging business growth in the clean energy economy.

Read Next

August 11, 2022
The US government Department of Energy is looking for public input into how US$675 million of funding for R&D into Critical Materials should be best directed.
August 11, 2022
German project developer Energiequelle has entered the Polish renewables market with an eye on 30 projects with more than 1GW of capacity.
August 11, 2022
EDF Renewable Energy has reached full power operation of its 457MW ‘Palen Solar Project’ located on public lands in the south of California.
August 11, 2022
The financial adversity of India’s struggling distribution companies (Discoms) has been reflected in a significant downgrading in the latest rankings by the Ministry of Power, giving yet more concern for renewable energy players
August 11, 2022
Finlay Colville, Solar Media's head of market research, lays out the UK's path to achieving 40GW+ of solar PV by 2030 after rebounding from recent headwinds in its solar sector
August 11, 2022
Michigan utility DTE Energy has signed an agreement with automaker Ford to supply 650MW of solar PV in Michigan.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
September 7, 2022
15:30 AEST (UTC +10)
Solar Media Events
September 14, 2022
London
Solar Media Events
October 4, 2022
New York, USA
Solar Media Events
October 11, 2022
Virtual event