‘Solar can deliver’ will be mantra at COP28 says new Global Solar Council CEO

Talking points at COP

Asked what the PV sector can expect from the conference this year, Dunlop says: “This COP in Dubai is going to be arguably the biggest and most important COP that the renewables industry as a whole has ever witnessed and therefore for the PV industry too.”

While there is already global consensus on the need to increase deployment of renewables and EVs as well as doubling energy efficiency by 2030, the more politically controversial part of the energy transition package on the table at COP is around fossil fuel phase down and phase out.

“The Emirati Presidency of COP28 has a real job on its hands to craft a compromise between all the different governments involved,” says Dunlop. “Bearing in mind that energy is only a small part of the overall deal, we also have to deal with adaptations to climate impacts, repair and compensation for loss and damage, and the need for countries to come up with more ambitious climate plans. Each part will influence the others.”

Financing all the different elements needed to deliver climate safety for all is another big issue. Wind and solar are lucky, says Dunlop, in that much of their financing comes from the private sector, but financing in the least developed and poorest countries such as Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia or Myanmar remains less available, so there is a massive role to be played by public financial institutions such as the World Bank and other multilateral development banks.

“Many developing countries want to see money on the table before they agree to anything, and quite rightly so,” adds Dunlop. “That’s going to be a huge problem as we know that the nuclear industry is also going to be active there and the oil and gas industry and the coal industry will be fighting that corner. But the direction of travel is clear and having these big global targets for renewables and energy efficiency helps make that even clearer.”

Keeping up with demand

With governments setting ever higher PV targets, Dunlop is confident from current forecasts that PV manufacturing will be able to keep up with demand in line with the huge 11TW of renewables by 2030 target. It is this confidence in the increasing global manufacturing base that underpins one of the main mantras that Dunlop says GSC will be using at COP which is “Solar Can Deliver”.

Aside from the usual manufacturing big hitters in China, the US and India, she expects Southeast Asia to see even more big manufacturing hubs pop up due to the region’s enormous forecasted growth in electricity demand along with booming economies and fast expanding populations.

Sub-Saharan Africa has many of the critical raw materials and, if done right, could potentially capture some of the value in terms of processing those raw materials as well. Dunlop also picks out the whole of Latin America as a potential hotspot, pointing to the “astounding” levels of deployment in Brazil last year and the great potential in Chile with its world-beating irradiation levels.

“There’s potential for big parts of the value chain in Brazil as well,” she adds. “We want every region of the world to be involved in this and to be operating in one global, free and fair system for delivering PV and getting it up on roofs and into the ground.”

Dunlop encourages all PV manufacturers to join the GSC to help coordinate the global policy and industrial conversations on the direction of travel for solar PV at every step of the value chain. “If these companies want a more coherent global picture, then they really need to have a seat at the table,” she adds.

The ‘mini-IRA’ debate

The US’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 marked a sea change in the US solar industry, opening the gates to enormous confidence and drive to deploy PV as well as onshore manufacturing. When asked if GSC believes other nations would do well to adopt similar policies, Dunlop says this notion of disseminating “mini-IRAs” requires more discussion within industry.

“My initial thinking is what we need is more strategic coordination of industrial strategies all over the world on PV,” says Dunlop. “We need to try and bring together all the people who are working on these industrial strategies and make sure that they fit together like jigsaw pieces in a big global puzzle, because that’s how we will succeed; ultimately the climate challenge will succeed together or not at all.”

GSC’s future

GSC was founded by a host of national and regional solar associations around the world in 2015 to bring all those associations together into one global body to represent and coordinate them as one united voice. It already works closely with the big names such as BSW in Germany, SolarPower Europe, the Asian Photovoltaic Industry Association (APVIA), ABsolar in Brazil, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), and the American Council on renewable Energy (ACORE).

However, Dunlop’s aim is to get these bodies “to work together much more on the global challenges”, which aren’t just unique to their specific geographies.

First steps as CEO

In her new role as CEO, Dunlop’s first aim is to talk to all the current GSC members and key players to understand what they need from the council and what they need help with.

The number one short-term priority is securing a global target, with the council having already worked very hard on the target of 11TW of total installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, of which PV will do the lion’s share.

“This is really important to us, because it sends a market signal to financial markets, to energy markets, to the real economy as well of what the direction of travel is in terms of the build out of renewables, and that market signal then becomes a self-reinforcing process,” adds Dunlop.

After this, GSC already has several regional task forces aiming to spur PV deployment in the developing world in particular Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Thus, there will be a focus on ascertaining what barriers there are to deployment in these regions and then attempting to fix them at a regional level.

While GSC already issues several global market insight reports such as its collaboration with SolarPower Europe on the Global Market Outlook Report, Dunlop plans to create specific task forces on different challenges facing the sector, such as grid bottlenecks, connections, skills and labour shortages, as well as price cannibalisation, and then to share best practices based on these findings.

“I’m keen to hear from our members what we could potentially do at global level to try and address that,” adds Dunlop. “Of course, every market is different and every market has its own regulatory context. But often, the problems that we’ve encountered in Latin America may have parallels and the guys in Southeast Asia are experiencing similar things. So, we can help translate best practice from one part of the world to the other.”

Solutions to global grid bottlenecks

One of these big challenges already mentioned is that of grid constraints, for which there are already many different potential solutions on the table such as building new and smarter grids, investing in more flexibility on the demand side, and energy storage. If this was identified as a global priority and a key enabling factor for getting the 6-8TW of solar into the ground and on roofs by 2030, then the council could create momentum at global level to help access concessional finance. It would do this in partnership with relevant organisations such as the Renewables Grid Initiative to have more coordination on grid build-out strategies within and across regions.

“If you can build that kind of momentum at global level, then that would hopefully trickle down to more progress on the ground in the UK, Portugal, or Zimbabwe, and all these other places where we are incredibly grid-constrained,” says Dunlop.

As part of the Global Renewables Alliance, which represents all the different global renewables associations around the world, GSC will also be working on grid constraints for the other renewable energy sectors such as wind, geothermal, hydrogen and hydropower.

‘Global solar industry needs to own and write its own story’

Asked about pushback in the media against renewables, Dunlop says: “There is a need to try and shape the narrative around PV. We need to position ourselves as the versatile, resilient, modular and increasingly cheap electricity generation technology that we are.

“Sometimes there are other narratives, so we need to make sure that we’re owning the story around solar and that other people aren’t. There is a need for the global solar industry to own and write its own story, in terms of the global media narrative around the energy transition, and make sure that our voice is fully represented at that global level.”

Responses to Europe’s toxic inventory

Questioned about the huge build-up of solar module inventory in Europe, of which much may have to be written off due to falling prices, Dunlop says that prices in PV are naturally cyclical with peaks and troughs. However, she adds that we are entering a new era where the PV market is much more stable in many places around the world.

“We’re seeing the end of the ‘solarcoaster’, as it used to be called, because it’s not so much a policy-driven market anymore, but it’s an economics-driven market,” she says.

COP28 Policy Agenda

The Global Renewables Alliance recently last week released its ‘COP28 Policy Agenda’, with 13 key points that GSC has summarised as follows:

1. Establish a global target to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 to at least 11TW.
2. Support massive deployment of renewable energy, underlying infrastructure as well as flexibility solutions on supply and demand side.
3. Invest in grid action plans which rapidly build out electricity grids, green hydrogen infrastructure, and heat systems for integration of renewables and energy storage.
4. Multilateral and national finance flows should be aligned with investment needs and provide access to low-cost capital in developing countries.
5. Commit to ambitious energy transition plans to allow the renewables and storage industry to plan for efficient supply chain development.
6. Streamline permitting schemes for grid-scale renewable energy projects and energy storage.
7. Include simplified mechanisms for clean power procurement and pricing.
8. Establish market mechanisms and remove barriers for energy storage.
9. Implement robust sustainability and technology standards/certification governing new projects and infrastructure.
10. Encourage regulatory and revenue stability and provide incentives for flexibility and dispatchability and introduce simplified mechanisms for clean power procurement and pricing.
11. Progress the implementation of the global rulebook on carbon markets.
12. Ensure the energy transition leaves no one behind.
13. Maximise the potential for an environmentally friendly transition with net-positive biodiversity impacts.

Final message for COP28

“My main message is I want all the main players in this industry to come and talk to us to tell us what they need in terms of support at the global level,” urges Dunlop. “We’re here to help the PV industry in every shape and form in terms of utility-scale, in terms of commercial & industrial and rooftops, in terms of manufacturing, and in terms of product development. Come and join us in our renewed push to try and empower more people, more businesses and more countries with more solar.

“More than anything, the role of the Global Solar Council is to unite the whole PV industry, from top to bottom from every bit of the value chain so we can speak as one voice on the global stage, have one message and make its voice heard loud and clear, at every opportunity.”