Taiwan-based market research firm EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce expects prices for polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules to steadily increase through the second half of the year as downstream demand in China, US, Japan and India remains strong.
EnergyTrend said that not only were China-based tier-1 PV module manufacturers running at full-capacity but many tier 2 producers were also in the same position, driven by expectations that China could exceed the government targets of over nearly 18GW this year.
Polysilicon pricing has so far been dampened due to overcapacity and the imposition of anti-dumping duties on primarily US polysilicon producers.
However, key Chinese producers such as GCL-Poly and Daqo New Energy are scrambling to add capacity. However, EnergyTrend expects a rebound in ASPs over the next few months from US$13.5/kg to US$14/kg on average, currently.
Demand is also helping ASP recovery in wafers and cells.
Taiwanese cell manufacturers were said to have been able to keep ASPs at around US$0.32/W, due to higher efficiency rates, which were said be around 17.8%.
Taiwanese cell ASPs are expected to rise to the US$0.325/W level, while the Chinese cells will be approaching to the range of RMB2.25~2.3/W.
However, PERC-based cell demand was said to be weak at the moment due to low volume production and processes yet to be dialled-in before efficiency rates become stable.