Unpredictable environmental changes mean solar irradiance fluctuations, study finds

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
A BMR Energy solar project in Guatemala.
The clear-sky index shows how much total solar radiation reaches the earth’s surface under clear-sky conditions. Image: BMR Energy

Unpredictable environmental changes such as cloud coverage and dust particles are related to frequent changes in solar radiation at a site, according to a study co-conducted by the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology and the Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.

The study Spectral Analysis of Solar Irradiance Fluctuations was based on previous research that analysed the clear-sky index to calculate changes in solar power generation across different locations. The clear-sky index shows how much total solar radiation reaches the earth’s surface under clear-sky conditions, helping meteorologists and researchers understand deviations from ideal clear-sky conditions due to clouds, aerosols, and other atmospheric conditions.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

The research teams then examined how the radiation intensity changes over time and how it is affected by factors causing deviations from the predicted clear-sky conditions. The teams then used data from two different locations, including one in the Negev desert in Israel and another one at the equator in the Indian Ocean.

After studying the results, the research team found that frequent changes in solar radiation are connected to unpredictable environmental changes, while intermediate changes were associated with predictable clear-sky patterns such as latitude and hours of daylight.

“In our analysis, we specifically examined the measured global radiation intensity at the earth’s surface. Before this, there was no baseline study taking these factors into account to compare solar radiation across different geographic areas,” said Mahesh Bandi, head of the nonlinear and non-equilibrium physics unit at the OIST.

On that note, PV Tech covered findings from weather data and software provider Solargis about global solar irradiation last year. Globally, solar irradiance remained “relatively stable or increased in some regions” despite 2023 being the hottest year ever recorded alongside extreme weather events.

Some regions enjoyed a higher level of solar irradiation including Southeast Asia and Australia. Thanks to favourable weather conditions and reduced cloud cover, Southeast Asia and Australia exceeded their long-term solar irradition averages by 10% and 2% respectively.

Additionally, Solargis suggested that solar developers can use site-specific data of up to 30 years including solar radiation and air temperature to show the historical trends during the design phase of a solar PV plant.

Moreover, solar developers can use sub-hourly time series data instead of hourly typical meteorological year data. Time series data – for example, at a resolution of 15-minute intervals – uses high frequency collection to pinpoint temperature variability and improve the resultant accuracy of modelling. 

16 June 2026
Napa, USA
PV Tech has been running PV ModuleTech Conferences since 2017. PV ModuleTech USA, on 16-17 June 2026, will be our fifth PV ModulelTech conference dedicated to the U.S. utility scale solar sector. The event will gather the key stakeholders from solar developers, solar asset owners and investors, PV manufacturing, policy-making and and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out the PV module supply channels to the U.S. out to 2028 and beyond.
13 October 2026
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 13-14 October 2026 is our fourth PV CellTech conference dedicated to solar manufacturing in the USA. From polysilicon, wafers, ingots, cells and modules, to critical component suppliers including glass and frames, the event connects every stage of the value chain under one roof. PV CellTech USA also brings together investors, innovators, manufacturers and industry stakeholders to collaborate and strengthen domestic solar manufacturing across the United States.

Read Next

May 20, 2026
The US$300 million North Star platform will target investments across solar, wind, hybrid and energy storage projects. 
May 19, 2026
Michigan power utility DTE Energy has issued a tender for 1GW of new solar PV and wind power projects across the state.
May 19, 2026
JinkoSolar has partnered with PM Green to supply 200MW of modules, as part of a broader collaboration covering up to 1GW of capacity. 
May 19, 2026
Inox Clean Energy has completed the acquisition of US solar manufacturer Boviet Solar Technology in a deal valued at around US$750 million.
May 19, 2026
NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy have confirmed that they will combine, forming the largest regulated power utility company in the world.
May 19, 2026
Enel Green Power North America has acquired a 270MW operational solar PV portfolio from an unnamed US utility.

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
May 20, 2026
Porto, Portugal
Upcoming Webinars
May 27, 2026
9am BST / 10am CEST
Upcoming Webinars
May 27, 2026
9am BST / 10am CEST
Media Partners, Solar Media Events
June 2, 2026
Johannesburg, South Africa
Media Partners, Solar Media Events
June 3, 2026
National Exhibition and Convention Center (Shanghai)