Unpredictable environmental changes mean solar irradiance fluctuations, study finds

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
A BMR Energy solar project in Guatemala.
The clear-sky index shows how much total solar radiation reaches the earth’s surface under clear-sky conditions. Image: BMR Energy

Unpredictable environmental changes such as cloud coverage and dust particles are related to frequent changes in solar radiation at a site, according to a study co-conducted by the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology and the Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.

The study Spectral Analysis of Solar Irradiance Fluctuations was based on previous research that analysed the clear-sky index to calculate changes in solar power generation across different locations. The clear-sky index shows how much total solar radiation reaches the earth’s surface under clear-sky conditions, helping meteorologists and researchers understand deviations from ideal clear-sky conditions due to clouds, aerosols, and other atmospheric conditions.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

The research teams then examined how the radiation intensity changes over time and how it is affected by factors causing deviations from the predicted clear-sky conditions. The teams then used data from two different locations, including one in the Negev desert in Israel and another one at the equator in the Indian Ocean.

After studying the results, the research team found that frequent changes in solar radiation are connected to unpredictable environmental changes, while intermediate changes were associated with predictable clear-sky patterns such as latitude and hours of daylight.

“In our analysis, we specifically examined the measured global radiation intensity at the earth’s surface. Before this, there was no baseline study taking these factors into account to compare solar radiation across different geographic areas,” said Mahesh Bandi, head of the nonlinear and non-equilibrium physics unit at the OIST.

On that note, PV Tech covered findings from weather data and software provider Solargis about global solar irradiation last year. Globally, solar irradiance remained “relatively stable or increased in some regions” despite 2023 being the hottest year ever recorded alongside extreme weather events.

Some regions enjoyed a higher level of solar irradiation including Southeast Asia and Australia. Thanks to favourable weather conditions and reduced cloud cover, Southeast Asia and Australia exceeded their long-term solar irradition averages by 10% and 2% respectively.

Additionally, Solargis suggested that solar developers can use site-specific data of up to 30 years including solar radiation and air temperature to show the historical trends during the design phase of a solar PV plant.

Moreover, solar developers can use sub-hourly time series data instead of hourly typical meteorological year data. Time series data – for example, at a resolution of 15-minute intervals – uses high frequency collection to pinpoint temperature variability and improve the resultant accuracy of modelling. 

13 October 2026
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 13-14 October 2026 is our fourth PV CellTech conference dedicated to solar manufacturing in the USA. From polysilicon, wafers, ingots, cells and modules, to critical component suppliers including glass and frames, the event connects every stage of the value chain under one roof. PV CellTech USA also brings together investors, innovators, manufacturers and industry stakeholders to collaborate and strengthen domestic solar manufacturing across the United States.

Read Next

July 3, 2026
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a US$160 million loan to support the deployment of at least 310MW of new solar capacity in Bhutan.
July 3, 2026
Researchers have developed a predictive framework for 2D perovskite design to enable more efficient, stable solar cells.
July 3, 2026
The US is reportedly drafting a ban on Chinese solar inverters over concerns that they pose a risk to the grid.
July 3, 2026
The state of New York has reached 8GW of cumulative installed distributed solar PV, putting the state ahead of its 10GW target by 2030.
July 3, 2026
Australia's utility-scale solar PV and wind assets generated a combined 4.73TWh in June, an 11% YoY increase, according to Rystad Energy.
Sponsored
July 3, 2026
MOVA LumeGret's Roger Shen, says the industry is evolving from standalone hardware solutions toward intelligent home energy ecosystems.

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
October 13, 2026
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
Solar Media Events
November 3, 2026
Málaga, Spain
Solar Media Events
November 24, 2026
Warsaw, Poland
Solar Media Events
April 20, 2027
Istanbul, Türkiye