Brazil forecast to hit 8% curtailment by 2035 amid renewable energy transition

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
The Mendubim solar plant in Brazil.
Brazil added 5.6GW of new solar capacity in 2024. Image: Scatec

Renewable energy curtailment in Brazil is set to reach 8% across the country, and be as high as 11% in the north-east, by 2035, according to analyst Wood Mackenzie.

The analyst notes that this is driven by a combination of significant renewable energy installations and a lack of investment in grid capacity. Brazil added 5.6GW of new solar capacity in 2024, more than any other renewable energy technology, and Wood Mackenzie expects Brazil to add 76GW of new solar and onshore wind capacity through 2035.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

This trend could be intensified by recent political activities in Brazil, such as a proposed reform to the energy system. Currently, solar projects with a capacity of less than 300MW receive a 50% discount on costs to connect to electrical transmission and distribution systems – which has encouraged the deployment of small-scale solar projects in particular, with Wood Mackenzie expecting small-scale projects to represent 48% of total installations to 2034 – but a draft law reform would see this applied exclusively to contracts currently in effect.

“Brazil’s infrastructure development cannot keep pace with the surge in energy oversupply expected this decade, particularly during peak solar generation hours between 8am and 5pm,” said Marina Azevedo, senior power analyst for Wood Mackenzie. “Even with 11GW of new transmission capacity planned by 2029 – including the new Silvania-Graça Aranha bipolar line – curtailment rates will continue climbing exponentially.”

Concerns about available grid capacity in Brazil echo similar challenges faced across South America. Chile, another leader in the South American solar sector, saw a record 6TWh of solar and wind curtailment in 2024, and this trend is likely to continue unless grid capacity can be significantly improved in the future.

Wood Mackenzie described battery energy storage systems (BESS) as a “critical solution” for this issue, encouraging Brazil to transition to a more flexible energy mix.

“Transmission capacity additions alone will not solve the curtailment scaling problem,” said Fernando Dorand, power analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Demand response measures and batteries will help absorb the energy oversupply from the north-east. Batteries will enable generators to convert that wasted energy into power arbitrage opportunities and reverse the profit losses they face.”

Read Next

July 23, 2025
Spanish renewables developer Acciona Energía has powered a 162.6MWp solar PV plant in the Dominican Republic.
July 21, 2025
Xcel Energy has announced plans to install 2GW of new renewable energy capacity in the US states of Texas and New Mexico.
July 21, 2025
Spanish renewables developer Acciona Energía has started construction at a 177.9MWp solar PV plant in Peru.
July 18, 2025
Georgia Power’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) will see the utility aim to install 4GW of new renewable power capacity by 2035.
July 17, 2025
Swedish solar developer OX2 has submitted plans for a 150MW solar-plus-storage project in Queensland to Australia’s EPBC Act.
July 16, 2025
US IPP Geronimo Power has started construction at its 250MW Portage Solar project in its home state of Wisconsin.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Media Partners, Solar Media Events
September 2, 2025
Mexico City, Mexico
Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK
Solar Media Events
October 2, 2025
London,UK