Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has issued forecasts for the amounts of distributed PV and utility PV to be installed in China between now and 2030 under a range of four different scenarios.
The forecasts are published as part of BNEF’s ‘The Future of China’s Power Sector: From centralised and coal powered to distributed and renewable?’ report.
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In the four scenarios, BNEF expects between 117GW and 206GW of utility-scale PV to be installed, with the prediction for distributed PV ranging from 191GW to 294GW. Under BNEF’s ‘new normal’ or ‘base case’ scenario, around 123GW of utility scale PV and 207GW of distributed PV would be installed between 2013 and 2030.
According to the report, renewables will contribute to more than half of new capacity growth and by 2030 installed renewable capacity will be equal to that of coal.
The four scenarios taken into account are Traditional Territory, New Normal – BNEF’s base case, Barrier Busting, and the Barrier Busting scenario including a carbon price.
The report asserts that by 2030, China’s overall power market will have doubled in size, with BNEF expecting it to reach 2,707GW by 2030. Coal fired generation capacity as a proportion of total installed generation capacity will drop by 23%, from 67% to 44%, although BNEF predictss that coal generation will rise in absolute terms by 25GW each year.