Strike prices for solar PV in upcoming UK Contracts for Difference (CfD) allocation have been forecast to be around £63-68MWh (US$86-93MWh), according to trade body, Solar Energy UK (SEUK).
Due to be released imminently by the UK government, the trade body said the results of allocation round 7a (AR7a) are “keenly awaited”. SEUK added that the major change from previous years is the move from a 15-year to a 20-year contract.
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Using 2024-benchmarked prices, the solar strike price was £64.09/MWh in AR4, £65.49/MWh in AR5, and then, of course, £72.92/MWh in AR6, which awarded contracts to 3.3GW of solar PV.
Factoring in a “healthy” solar project pipeline and the £310 million budget allocated (this is for all technologies that are not offshore wind), SEUK predicts a 9-16% discount on the £72.92 administrative strike price of last year, which is the cap on bids imposed by the government.
SEUK estimates that 6GW of capacity is eligible to bid for a CfD, but as some developers opt for alternative financial arrangements such as power purchase agreements (PPAs), AR7a will deliver 3.5-4.5GW of solar plants between 2028 and 2031.
It said that this broadly aligns with what is needed to meet the overarching solar target set in the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan.
Figures from Solar Media Market Research, laid out in a recent Solar Power Portal article by analyst Josh Cornes, show that in 2025, 3.5GWp ground-mount solar PV was added, bringing the UK’s total operational capacity past 23GWp.
Less projects awarded as size increases
In terms of the number of projects that will win, there are two possible outcomes: looking at historical rounds, the average capacity of awarded sites was 35MW, suggesting 100-130 projects would receive CfDs this year.
However, the increasing scale of solar PV plants in the UK, as higher numbers enter the planning system as Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIPs) with capacities over 50MW, means that a lower number of individual projects could win.
This article was first published on our sister-site Solar Power Portal.
