660GW of solar PV deployments expected in 2024 – Bernreuter Research

Bernreuter predicts that between 600GW and 660GW of solar PV will be deployed this year. Image: Trina Solar

660GW of solar PV capacity will be deployed in 2024 as market demand responds to sustained low module prices, according to polysilicon market researcher Bernreuter Research.

Based on the shipment targets of the six major solar manufacturers – namely JinkoSolar, LONGi, Trina, JA Solar, Tongwei and Canadian Solar – Bernreuter predicts that between 600GW and 660GW of solar PV will be deployed this year.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

These companies have average shipment increase targets of 40% in 2024, the research says, which would translate directly to 622GW of new capacity based on the 444GW of capacity deployed in 2023. A new report today from SolarPower Europe found that 447GW of new solar capacity was added globally last year, an increase of 87% compared with 2022.

Crucially, Bernreuter Research’s prediction hinges on the ongoing low prices of solar modules globally. Many manufacturers have faced difficulties in the last year as prices have plummeted across the supply chain and manufacturing capacity has been far in excess of global demand. In March this year, the Chairman of LONGi eventually called on the Chinese government to crack down on “unreasonably low” module prices to create a more sustainable model.

Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research, said: “Once market participants come to the conclusion that the crash of the solar module price has reached its bottom, demand will accelerate.

“Even if the leading players gain market share as Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers struggle in the current low-price environment, it is likely that new PV installations will exceed 600 GWdc this year.”

In November 2023, Bernreuter predicted a “shakeout” in the polysilicon market as, following drastic overcapacity, big players consolidate the market and smaller or newer participants struggle or are pushed out altogether. This dynamic has rippled downstream to the module manufacturing industry.

The current price dynamics for solar manufacturing have made an already volume-based industry even more reliant on low-cost, high-volume production. Coupled with the current overcapacity in the market, some questions have been raised over the ability of smaller manufacturers, newer companies or new markets looking to establish solar production capacity to sustain operations.  This was explored in the cover feature for the Q1 2024 edition of our downstream journal, PV Tech Power.

21 August 2024
5pm BST
FREE WEBINAR -This webinar will feature the perspectives and views of PV Tech’s Head of Research, Dr. Finlay Colville, on how the U.S. PV manufacturing landscape is changing today and when we might expect additions to encompass cells and wafers. This will be followed by a PV Tech special – a look inside one of the first new PV module fabs built in the U.S. this year; SEG Solar’s new site in Texas. Join Jim Wood, CEO at SEG Solar, as he walks around the new factory showing key features and explaining the rational for SEG Solar in making this investment into U.S. PV manufacturing in 2024.
8 October 2024
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 8-9 October 2024 is our second PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The event in 2023 was a sell out success and 2024 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.
26 November 2024
Málaga, Spain
Understanding PV module supply to the European market in 2025. PV ModuleTech Europe 2024 is a two-day conference that tackles these challenges directly, with an agenda that addresses all aspects of module supplier selection; product availability, technology offerings, traceability of supply-chain, factory auditing, module testing and reliability, and company bankability.
17 June 2025
Napa, USA
PV Tech has been running PV ModuleTech Conferences since 2017. PV ModuleTech USA, on 17-18 June 2025, will be our fourth PV ModulelTech conference dedicated to the U.S. utility scale solar sector. The event will gather the key stakeholders from solar developers, solar asset owners and investors, PV manufacturing, policy-making and and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out the PV module supply channels to the U.S. out to 2026 and beyond.

Read Next

July 24, 2024
A roundup of two agrivoltaics projects from different sides of the world, from US PV developer Avangrid and Lodestone Energy in New Zealand.
July 24, 2024
Swiss renewable energy investment group GoldenPeaks Capital and German commercial bank Nord/LB have closed €109 million in financing to support two solar PV project portfolios in Poland.
July 24, 2024
China added 102.48GW of new PV installations between January and June 2024, according to the latest data from China's National Energy Administration.
July 24, 2024
The AEMO has signaled that grid-scale solar generated an average of over 1.4GW in Q2 2024, a 132MW increase year-on-year.
July 24, 2024
Asahi Beverages, BaptistCare have sign PPAs to secure energy from “one of the largest solar farms” in New South Wales, Australia.
July 23, 2024
119 bids were successfully awarded contracts, for a total of 258.5MW capacity. Successful bids ranged between €0.0795/kWh and €0.1019/kWh, with a volume-weighted average price of €0.0894/kWh.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
July 31, 2024
1:00 PM (BST) / 2:00PM (CEST)
Solar Media Events
September 24, 2024
Warsaw, Poland
Solar Media Events
September 24, 2024
Singapore, Asia
Solar Media Events
October 8, 2024
San Francisco Bay Area, USA