Australia’s last coal-fired power station predicted to close in the 2050s

November 5, 2024
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
Australia’s biggest coal-fired power station is Eraring (above) located in New South Wales. Image: Mining and Energy Union.

While most coal-fired power stations in Australia are expected to close in the 2030s, UK-based research group Cornwall Insight predicts that the last will not close until the 2050s.

Speaking exclusively to PV Tech, Thomas Fitzsimons, a senior modeller at Cornwall Insight, said that although Australia has made solid progress in increasing renewable energy generation, with the National Electricity Market (NEM) having added 1.2GW of large-scale solar PV in 12 months, coal-fired power will still play a role in the electricity mix for the next few decades.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

Recent research from Cornwall Insight indicated that coal-fired power stations could operate beyond the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) predicted full withdrawal date of 2038. Clean Energy Council (CEC) CEO Kane Thornton exclusively told PV Tech at the recent All-Energy Australia 2024 event that the AEMO’s prediction was the “same timeframe that we [the CEC] are working towards”.

Cornwall Insight’s predicted extension of coal-fired power generation is primarily due to concerns surrounding workforce shortages and a lack of the “necessary renewable energy infrastructure” that will not be built quickly enough to replace lost capacity.

“While most of the coal-fired generators are retired in the 2030s, a portion remain online into the 2040s, and the last coal-fired generator does not close until the 2050s,” Fitzsimons told PV Tech.

It is worth noting that coal-fired power generation will be overtaken by rooftop solar PV by the end of 2024.

Queensland to lead Australia’s energy transition

Fitzsimons has also predicted that Queensland will see the biggest change in renewable energy capacity in the future, rising from around 50% today, to around 83% by 2035.

This will be mainly driven by the closure of coal-fired power plants in addition to the significant renewable energy buildout currently being undertaken in the state. Indeed, PV Tech recently reported that solar PV had been installed on over 50% of Queensland’s houses, according to data from the not-for-profit organisation the Climate Council.

Queensland has advocated for rooftop solar PV and introduced varying government support to rapidly scale up. For instance, in June 2024, the state government designated two Local Renewable Energy Zones (LREZ) in Townsville and Caloundra.

Despite this, Fitzsimons noted that the research group’s predictions “may yet have to be revisited” following the recent state election, which saw David Crisafulli’s right-wing Liberal National Party (LNP) of Queensland elected to lead the government. This change of government has raised questions regarding the future of Queensland’s energy policy and whether it will commit to the legislated renewable energy targets and the withdrawal of coal-fired power.

Read Next

Premium
October 21, 2025
PV Tech Premium spoke with academic and industry experts about the rising tide of cybersecurity concerns in Europe's solar energy sector.
October 21, 2025
Australia's solar-plus-storage sector gained momentum with 725MW of solar PV approvals advancing across New South Wales and Queensland.
October 21, 2025
Luminous Robotics has successfully completed its first international deployment of AI-powered solar installation robots at Engie’s 250MW Goorambat East Solar Farm in Victoria, Australia.
October 21, 2025
An independent panel has granted resource consents for the 179MW Glorit Solar Farm in Auckland, New Zealand.
October 20, 2025
Details of tariffs on US imports of polysilicon products may be announced as early as the end of this month, according to a note from investment bank Roth Capital.
October 17, 2025
Norwegian renewable energy firm Scatec has signed lease agreements for 64MW of solar PV and 10MWh of energy storage capacity in Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
November 25, 2025
Warsaw, Poland
Solar Media Events
December 2, 2025
Málaga, Spain
Solar Media Events
February 3, 2026
London, UK
Solar Media Events
March 10, 2026
Frankfurt, Germany