China’s rising polysilicon imports sets stage for repeat solar install boom in 2017

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on email
A new surge in polysilicon imports mirrored the previous cycle with 8,680MT imported in October, 2016 and 13,584MT imported in November last year, a 56.5% increase. Image: Bernreuter Research

According to polysilicon market specialist, Bernreuter Research recent polysilicon import levels into China surged between October and November 2016, while ASP’s also recovered, a trend seen the year before and ahead of China installing a record 22GW of solar in the first half of 2016. 

Bernreuter Research noted that polysilicon imports into China in October 2015 went from 7,504MT to 10,028MT in the following month, a 33.6% increase. Imports were said to have peaked at 13,866 MT in March 2016. The timing is inline with the upstream supply chain meeting PV module demand by the end of June, 2016 when FiT changes applied. 

However, a new surge in polysilicon imports mirrored the previous cycle with 8,680MT imported in October, 2016 and 13,584MT imported in November last year, a 56.5% increase. 

“The upper part of the PV value chain obviously anticipates an installation rush that could be even stronger than what we saw in China in the first half of 2016,” says Johannes Bernreuter, head of the polysilicon market research firm Bernreuter Research and author of the Polysilicon Market Outlook 2020. 

According to the Chinese customs statistics, polysilicon imports reached a new monthly record high of 14,449 MT in December 2016.

Recently, major polysilicon producer Wacker Chemie reported preliminary fourth quarter and full-year financial results for 2016, noting polysilicon sales of €295 million, compared to €242 million in the prior year period, a 22% increase. EBITDA increased by 20%, indicating an ASP improvement.

However, Bernreuter noted that three South Korean polysilicon producers OCI, Hankook Silicon and Hanwha Chemical had been the key beneficiaries of demand in China as the Korean share in total polysilicon imports into China has more than doubled from 24% in 2012 to 50% in 2016. 

“OCI and Hankook have benefitted from low import duties of 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively, while US manufacturers have effectively been shut out from the Chinese market by prohibitive duty rates of 53.6% to 57%,” added Bernreuter.

Although polysilicon imports indicate a repeat cycle from 2016, the end-market demand may be higher in 2017. 

Bernreuter noted that part of spike in imports in the fourth quarter was due to a large number of Chinese polysilicon producers curtailing production and carrying out annual maintenance of plants, though extended these operations due to market demand weakness through the second-half of 2016. Recent official Chinese PV install figures for the second half of 2016 were 13GW, compared to 22GW in the first-half of the year. 

However, domestic production quickly recovered from 12,600MT in October, 2016 to a new high of 18,000MT in December, according to Bernreuter.

With increased domestic production and imports spot market prices are moving upwards, indicating the strong demand. Bernreuter expects that the international spot price will climb towards US$17/kg in the first-half of 2017, while the expectation is prices would fall after June’s FiT reductions. 

21 December 2021
Where are PV modules going in 2022? Manufacturing trends, performance levels, most-bankable suppliers, and everything else you need to know! Hear two talks from Finlay Colville, head of PV Tech Research, that were first presented at the recent PV ModuleTech event. The first presentation analyses PV manufacturing and production through the value-chain at the end of 2021 and forecasted to the end of 2022. Over and under-supply issues through the c-Si value-chain in particular are covered, including also where the industry is going with n-type productivity during 2022. The second presentation reveals the latest PV ModuleTech Bankability Ratings hierarchy/pyramid, revealing which 40 module suppliers today are the most bankable for global module selection. Case-studies are reviewed, alongside how companies’ financial problems show up clearly in the final ratings grades assigned to each company, from AAA down to C-Rated suppliers.

Read Next

December 7, 2021
The US and China will account for a combined 57% of total forecasted solar capacity additions through 2030, with the countries adding 151.3GW and 436.9GW of solar capacity, respectively. Both countries have risks to this development, however, with the US needing to overcome trade and tariff problems, while China needs to ensure the reliability of PV production
PV Tech Premium
December 7, 2021
PV Tech Premium speaks to Dany Qian, vice president at JinkoSolar, to get the inside story about the ‘Solar Module Super League’ member’s 16GW n-type expansion and plans to take the lead in TOPCon.
December 6, 2021
Daqo New Energy has begun pilot production at its new 35,000MT Phase 4B polysilicon production facility, which has been completed ahead of schedule.
December 6, 2021
China’s National Energy Administration has kickstarted the second batch of large-scale wind and solar PV projects under the country’s multi-hundred-gigawatt desert renewables scheme.
PV Tech Premium
November 26, 2021
Average market prices for 182mm solar wafers fell by nearly 7% this week, falling to levels not seen in almost two months, however other material and component costs have remained high.
November 24, 2021
The US International Trade Commission has recommended that the Section 201 safeguard tariffs on solar cells and modules be extended.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
December 21, 2021
Free Webinar
Solar Media Events
February 1, 2022
London, UK
Solar Media Events
February 23, 2022
London, UK
Solar Media Events
March 23, 2022
Austin, Texas, USA
Solar Media Events
March 29, 2022
Lisbon, Portugal

PV TECH POWER VOLUME 29 OUT NOW—Get 35% off your first year

Solar’s 2030 blueprint