Global polysilicon capacities to reach 536GW by year-end 2023 – CEA

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
CEA expects polysilicon prices to fall throughout 2023. Image: GTAT.

Global polysilicon capacities are on track to reach 295GW by the end of 2022 as six new facilities ramp up production this quarter, according to new research from Clean Energy Associates (CEA).

The solar and storage advisory firm forecasts polysilicon production will then soar to 536GW by year-end 2023, assuming all projects in the pipeline develop as planned.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

The projected increases follow sustained polysilicon price hikes this year, in part due to power rationing in China and silicon shortages. However, CEA research published in August said that polysilicon prices will drop throughout 2023 as sizeable manufacturing capacities come online.

In its ‘Q2 2022 PV Supplier Market Intelligence Program Report’, published this week, CEA expects PV manufacturing capacity to far exceed expected global solar deployment next year.

Compared to Q1 2022, global ingot capacity grew almost 30GW in Q2, primarily due to JinkoSolar bringing online a 20GW facility in China’s Qinghai province, while wafer capacity decreased, mainly as a result of GCL retiring much of its multi-crystalline wafer capacity, according to the research.

Although there is limited non-China ingot capacity, this is expected to expand marginally as JinkoSolar continues to ramp up a 7GW facility in Vietnam and JA Solar and LONGi start constructing their ingot and wafer facilities in Vietnam and Malaysia, respectively.

Only four suppliers in CEA’s report operate or plan to operate non-China ingot and wafer capacities.

Global cell capacity of the suppliers included in the research rose to 262GW in Q2 2022 and is expected to jump to nearly 329GW by the end of the year, with expansions dominated in China.

Nonetheless, some 7GW of cell capacity may come online in Southeast Asia from LONGi, JinkoSolar, JA Solar and others as suppliers are incentivised to expand in the region to hedge against lingering risks from the US’s Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and tariffs on Chinese manufacturing, CEA said.

Global module production capacity, meanwhile, was more than 324GW in Q2 2022 and is forecast to reach nearly 400GW by the end of the year.

The report notes that while some suppliers still see additional gains for PERC cells, most have shifted their focus to exploring TOPCon and heterojunction cells given with promising efficiency.

Manufacturers are also said to be exploring ways to optimise wafer sizes after standardising 210mm (G12) and 182mm (M10) module dimensions, with the ‘182mm plus’ increasing wafer heights to further reduce ‘white space’ caused by intercell gaps, achieving up to 5W of additional output.

Also covering PV supply chain capacities outside China, the research noted that while several US manufacturers are floating manufacturing expansions on the back of the country’s recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, less than 20% of new announcements will include North America-based ingot or wafer capacity.

For Europe, CEA said that although political interest in decoupling from China’s PV supply chain may impede future trade, this is unlikely to occur in the near term given Europe’s current lack of PV manufacturing capacities and the urgency for a transition to replace Russian fossil fuels.

Finally, the research suggested that India’s cell and module manufacturing capacities are expected to reach around 10GW and 30GW, respectively, by the end of the year.

8 October 2024
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 8-9 October 2024 is our second PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The event in 2023 was a sell out success and 2024 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.
26 November 2024
Málaga, Spain
Understanding PV module supply to the European market in 2025. PV ModuleTech Europe 2024 is a two-day conference that tackles these challenges directly, with an agenda that addresses all aspects of module supplier selection; product availability, technology offerings, traceability of supply-chain, factory auditing, module testing and reliability, and company bankability.

Read Next

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
April 10, 2024
Dallas, Texas USA
Solar Media Events
April 17, 2024
Lisbon, Portugal
Solar Media Events
May 1, 2024
Dallas, Texas
Solar Media Events
May 21, 2024
Napa, USA