Rapidly declining PV module prices are set to fuel a strong recovery in module shipments in the second half of the year, according to the latest analysis from IMS Research. The bullish report is guiding sequential shipment growth of an average of 30% in the third and fourth quarter with full-year shipments forecasted to reach over 23GW.
“As predicted, module prices have fallen incredibly quickly in the first half of 2011,” commented Sam Wilkinson, senior PV market analyst at IMS Research. “After two years of solid growth, demand has softened and PV modules are being priced highly competitively as a result. We’ve seen modules from recognised brands being offered for less than US$1.45/W (~€1.02). Such considerable reductions in prices, combined with no midyear feed-in-tariff reduction in Germany, will make investment in PV attractive again, and IMS Research predicts that this will reignite the German market from Q3’11.”
According to IMS Research, module prices are expected to stabilise on the back of strong demand in the second half of the year. The German PV market recovery is being seen as a key catalyst in helping to deplete record channel inventory in the supply chain seen the first half of 2011. Inventory levels are expected to return to normal levels of approximately one quarter of module production.