EIA: Renewables to overtake natural gas in US 2050 power mix

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
Source: Pixnio.com

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has predicted that renewables will take the largest slice of US electricity generation by 2050, doubling from 19% in 2019 to 38% in 2050.

According to the EIA's latest energy outlook, solar will contribute the most to the renewables surge, tripling from 14% of total clean energy generation to 46% in 2050. By mid-century, solar will overtake wind – which recently overtook hydro – as the leading source of renewable power.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

The projections mark a major pivot for the agency, which has long forecast that natural gas would remain the country’s dominant source of electricity over the decades to come.

While last year’s annual outlook put natural gas at 39% and renewables at 31% of the country’s projected energy mix for 2050, the agency now predicts that natural gas generation will be eclipsed by renewables generation at some point after 2045, lagging to 36% of the market mid-century.

According to the IEA, the US will export more energy than it consumes over the next three decades, thanks to increased energy efficiency at home and a growing domestic oil and gas industry.

The report notes that while coal and nuclear will drop in the mid-2020s as a result of retiring generators, generation will stabilise over the longer term at 13% and 12% respectively, as “economically viable plants remain in service.”

US energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will drop in the 2020s, thanks largely to retirements in coal-fired generation capacity and other changes around electricity power.

Emission levels will then pick up moderately in the 2030s due to energy demand from other sectors, in particular transport and industry, remaining just a whisker lower than 2019 levels.

Read the full report here: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/

The prospects and challenges of solar's new era in the US will take centre stage at Solar Media's Large Scale Solar USA, scheduled to take place in Austin (Texas) on 23-24 June 2020.

17 June 2025
Napa, USA
PV Tech has been running PV ModuleTech Conferences since 2017. PV ModuleTech USA, on 17-18 June 2025, will be our fourth PV ModulelTech conference dedicated to the U.S. utility scale solar sector. The event will gather the key stakeholders from solar developers, solar asset owners and investors, PV manufacturing, policy-making and and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out the PV module supply channels to the U.S. out to 2026 and beyond.
7 October 2025
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 7-8 October 2025 is our third PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The events in 2023 and 2024 were a sell out success and 2025 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.
21 October 2025
New York, USA
Returning for its 12th edition, Solar and Storage Finance USA Summit remains the annual event where decision-makers at the forefront of solar and storage projects across the United States and capital converge. Featuring the most active solar and storage transactors, join us for a packed two-days of deal-making, learning and networking.

Read Next

May 23, 2025
The California State Assembly’s Appropriations Committee has passed a net metering bill that could worsen residential solar owners’ rates when acquiring a property.
May 23, 2025
The US House of Representatives has passed a bill slashing tax credit provisions for clean energy projects.
May 22, 2025
US energy utility AES has signed two long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with technology giant Meta for two solar PV projects in the US states of Texas and Kansas.
May 22, 2025
The New York State Energy and Research Development Authority (NYSERDA) has contracted 2.2GW of solar PV across 18 projects.
May 22, 2025
SMA Solar will begin local assembly of power systems for large-scale solar and energy storage systems in the US.
May 21, 2025
US PV module manufacturer Silfab Solar has acquired a patent portfolio for back-contact (BC) solar cells from solar research firm EnPV.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
June 17, 2025
Napa, USA
Solar Media Events
July 1, 2025
London, UK
Solar Media Events
July 1, 2025
London, UK
Solar Media Events
July 8, 2025
Asia
Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece