Scrapping of China’s PV export tax rebate prompts panic buying and module price surge

Currently, Chinese PV products maintain a dominant position in the global market in terms of production capacity. Per CPIA data, the PV industry’s upstream segment accounts for over 95% of global production capacity, the midstream over 90%, and the module segment over 80%.

The abolition of export tax rebates will directly increase PV companies’ costs. CPIA notes that some companies incorporate the export tax rebate amount into their pricing leverage during product exports. As a result, fiscal funds originally intended to offset domestic VAT burdens are passed on to foreign buyers during negotiations.

The impact of this policy adjustment on companies is directly linked to the volume of export tax rebates they are entitled to. Under the latest policy, China will fully abolish the VAT export rebate for PV products starting 1 April 2026. This comes just over a year after the export tax rebate rate was cut from 13% to 9% in November 2024.

Taking Jinko Solar, LONGi, Trina Solar and JA Solar as examples, according to data disclosed by each company, Jinko Solar’s overseas module shipment ratio stands at approximately 57.8%, with overseas sales accounting for 68.6% of total revenue and a year-end balance of pending export tax rebates of RMB740 million. JA Solar’s overseas module shipment volume accounts for around 49%, with overseas sales accounting for 57.6% of total revenue and a year-end balance of pending export tax rebates of RMB18.28 million.

Dany Qian, vice president of Jinko Solar, stated in an interview with PV Tech: “The industry anticipated the implementation of the tax rebate policy, and our company has already formulated response plans. In the short term, our production utilisation rate will rise to a certain extent to meet phased overseas demand. The abolition of the tax refund policy will force the phase-out of outdated capacity, which is beneficial to leading companies like Jinko Solar—those with strengths in R&D, overseas capacity, market layout and distinct cost advantages. This will foster a healthier industry environment where high-quality players drive out less efficient ones.”

Trina Solar’s overseas module sales accounted for 60.9% of its total revenue, with a year-end balance of pending export tax rebates of RMB20.6 million. Among the four, LONGi Green’s overseas sales of wafers and modules accounted for 47.6%, which is the least affected.

According to Trina Solar, module prices will rise in the short term following the policy implementation. Overseas clients may rush installations to secure relatively lower-priced products, leading to a surge in exports in Q1. This could result in a tight supply-demand balance or even shortages. In the long run, module prices both domestically and internationally will stabilise within a reasonable profit range. Inefficient capacity will be phased out more rapidly, and market competition will evolve from price competition to value competition.

PV module prices set to surge by up to 30-40% in Q1 2026

Data from InfoLink Consulting as of January 21 shows that quotations for TOPCon and back-contact modules have continued to rise, surpassing RMB0.8/W.

LnfoLink notes that against the backdrop of the abolition of the export tax rebate policy and soaring silver prices, PV module manufacturers have generally hiked their quotations. For TOPCon modules exported overseas, the average price has been revised to USD0.089/W. For modules destined for European projects, order renegotiations have become widespread due to the abolition of the export tax rebate, with local market prices rising accordingly. Current export quotations stand at US$0.09-0.13/W. Module shipments in Q1 2026 are expected to be focused primarily on overseas markets.

Regarding the Q1 2026 PV module price forecasts, Jinko’s Dany Qian stated: “Given the abolition of export tax rebates and rising raw material costs, our company will adjust prices upward within a reasonable range. As for the PV module prices in Q1 2026, we expect prices to surge by as much as 30-40%.”

Wang Kunpeng, head of market analysis at Astronergy, stated: “We have already raised our module prices. The current tax‑inclusive domestic module price is close to RMB0.9/W, while overseas prices are roughly on par. Prices for long-term contracts will be slightly higher. In the short term, prices will rise significantly due to rising raw material costs and policy adjustments. The subsequent price will depend on raw material prices and downstream demand.”

Trina Solar also announced that it has raised its module prices. On 20 January, Trina Solar updated its distributed market guidance prices for the domestic market. The general module product prices (including tax but excluding freight) have risen to RMB0.88–0.92/W. Compared to the 1 January quotation (RMB0.82–0.86/W), prices have increased by RMB0.06/W.

Regarding the overseas market, Trina Solar noted that following the abolition of export tax rebates, module prices will gradually rise in Q1. Furthermore, due to the approaching Lunar New Year holiday and inventory building in overseas markets, there may be a short-term supply shortage. Silver prices are expected to continue rising throughout 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, industrial demand and supply‑demand imbalances. Therefore, module prices in 2026 are expected to go steadily upward.