Solar stung at Australia’s latest energy-loss forecast round

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
CEC: The MLF process introduces risks that are 'virtually impossible to manage' (Credit: Jachu666 / Pixabay)

The investment pipeline into Australian renewables lies at risk if the country doesn’t rethink its system to forecast grid energy losses, according to the Clean Energy Council (CEC).

The industry body urged for sweeping changes to Australia’s marginal loss factor (MLF) calculations shortly after the country’s operator AEMO published the latest forecasts, covering the 2019-to-2020 financial year.  

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

The MLF projections – used to predict losses of power as it flows through the network to customers – are seen in the industry as a make-or-break revenue multiplier for electricity projects.

The draft 2019/2020 MLF ratings are down across the vast majority of the solar projects listed by AEMO, following the decline many already experienced last year.

Should the final 2019/2020 version – due out in April 2019 – remain unchanged, it would see for instance the rating of New South Wales’ Broken Hill Solar Farm fall from 0.97 to 0.72, among many other losses.

Unease over grid congestion

Kane Thornton, chief executive at Australia’s CEC, said it is “imperative” to review a system he believes is causing “unexpected and unpredictable” hits to the viability of renewable projects.

“Predicting MLFs into the future is something no-one has been able to do with any accuracy. […] The current process introduces risks that are virtually impossible to manage after investment decisions have already been made,” Thornton added. 

In a statement, AEMO acknowledged that the large drops in MLFs seen this year pose “material financial implications” for market participants. The operator linked the gap between the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 projections to a “large increase” in connectors for the latter financial year, with 5.6GW in fresh capacity set to come online through new links.

For his part, the CEC’s Thornton urged for action against Australia’s “rapidly” congesting grid. Efficient investment in new poles and wires remains one of the “highest priorities” for the renewables industry, he said.

In Australia, unease over grid saturation has emerged as authorities – including states nearing election contests – unveil new, more ambitious goals to ramp up renewables. Together with Energy Networks Australia, AEMO is aiming to launch a policy paper around grid integration challenges later this year.

See here for more information on the latest MLF forecast round

Read Next

Premium
August 7, 2025
July 2025, the peak of the Australian winter season, saw generation from utility-scale and rooftop solar increase by 12.78% year-on-year in the National Electricity Market (NEM).
August 4, 2025
Australia’s Productivity Commission said the country should phase out subsidies for renewables and replace them with market-based incentives.
August 1, 2025
Western Australia network operator Western Power has confirmed it has granted two more network connection offers to two new large-scale renewable energy projects, bringing its total for 2024/25 to 759MW.
August 1, 2025
Dutch pension fund APG has agreed to provide Octopus Australia with AU$1 billion to support its solar, wind, and BESS portfolio.
July 31, 2025
Lucy Nation has said bp paid the price for proceeding “too quickly,” resulting in its exit from the 26GW AREH project in Pilbara.
July 28, 2025
Australia’s Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) has announced it has invested a record AU$4.7 billion (US$3.09 billion) in large-scale renewables, energy storage, and transmission projects during the 12-month period ending 30 June 2025.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK
Solar Media Events
October 2, 2025
London,UK
Solar Media Events
October 7, 2025
Manila, Philippines