Despite projections that solar PV and wind generation capacity in the US state will more than double by 2035, the Texas transmission grid will need to be upgraded to avoid increased asset curtailment across the state.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) could see 19% of its solar assets – and 13% of wind – curtailed by 2035 if no transmission upgrades are made, according to analysis from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2022 that figure was 9% for solar and 5% for wind generation.
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The issue will be around the balance of supply and demand, the report said, whereby a dramatic increase in renewables capacity that exceeds what the grid can use will result in assets being curtailed; having their output reduced or being turned off altogether, wasting the potential energy and reducing the long-term value of the asset.
The EIA outlined two reasons for curtailment in their forecast. Less common (36%) was oversupply to the grid during times of high demand coinciding with sunny and/or windy conditions, where transmission infrastructure is unable to accommodate the full production of its renewable assets and curtailments are forced.
The second and more frequent reason (64%) was the coincidence of sunny and windy conditions with low demand, where renewables capacity outpaced what ERCOT required. This could be somewhat mitigated by installing greater battery storage capacity and effectively increasing demand at off-peak times, the EIA said, though it also said that surplus generation issues can’t be solved by storage.
Texas represents a significant portion of the US renewables market – in 2022 ERCOT assets were 24% of US wind and 15% of total US solar generation.
Grid capacity and stability is a concern in the US as it doubles down on renewables and electrification. A report from PV Tech last year found that almost 1TW of renewables assets were stuck in interconnection queues across the country, of which at the time solar PV accounted for 676GW.