US solar module prices: ‘AD/CVD is freezing the market’, says Anza

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
TOPCon module prices have gone up in May, while PERC continued to drop. Image: Ricardo Gomez Angel via Unsplash.

The price of solar PV modules has hit bottomed out in the US, in response to the latest antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) petition and solar tariffs.

In its latest module pricing report covering March to May, solar and energy storage procurement firm Anza has noticed a slight price increase between April and May of 2%.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

In addition to that slight increase in module prices, the company adds that for the first time since 2022, some suppliers have increased their prices in response to the new trade regulations, which include the removal of tariff exemptions on bifacial solar panels.

The uncertainties of the AD/CVD petition, which the US International Trade Commission has decided to move forward with the investigation, have made it more complicated for some suppliers to prepare a medium-term plan in the US market. “It’s hard to do that when you don’t know what your actual costs and duties are going to be. That’s the biggest impact of the AD/CVD, [which] is freezing the market,” explains Aaron Hall, president at Anza.

Hall adds that prices would not have gone up if those — both the new AD/CVD petition and the solar tariffs — had not happened.

“Polysilicon, wafers and cells haven’t rebounded in any material respect. Internationally, the cost of upstream materials and supplies is still low,” explains Hall.

“These trade cases really wreak havoc on the market in the United States. Because largely, it means that the largest suppliers, that don’t really have anywhere to run, don’t necessarily have a safe cell source outside of the four countries [Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia] and China. And it’s not a small effort for them to establish that.”

Module price hit bottom (US$0.24/w) in April

Between February and May 2024, the median price dropped from US$0.279/w to US$0.25/w. Looking at the price changes on a weekly basis, module prices hit their lowest level during the week of 22 April with a price of US$0.24/w before going up to the current US$0.25/w, remaining at that price throughout the month of May.

“After years of record low pricing, we’re seeing the market start to rebound as domestic manufacturers have less pricing pressure from foreign producers that are subject to tariffs,” said Mike Hall, CEO of Anza.

“We’re expecting to see this upward price trend continue from here, making it critical for new projects to consider current pricing and potential tariff impacts when sourcing materials.”

TOPCon goes up, PERC continues down

In terms of technologies, the price of tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) has rebounded after several months of price decreases, while passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) continue to go down.

Between February and May, the price of TOPCon modules has gone from US$0.29/w to US$0.255/w, a 12.8% fall, while Mono PERC dropped from US$0.265/w to US$0.228. The price difference between both technologies remained around US$0.02 from February to April, with the gap starting to widen last month. As the price difference remained low for the past few months, TOPCon continues to be favoured over PERC.

Aaron Hall adds: “There’s still some kind of native organic demand for PERC over TOPCon but generally speaking, when you have the choice between the two, you choose TOPCon. Especially if the price is very close.”

Inventory building up

Hall also mentions that an inventory of modules is building up in the US, although nothing near compared to the situation in Europe last year.

“Most of the inventory, up until very recently, in the United States has been your 400 Watt vintage module. The reason that has existed in high amounts of capacity is largely because buyers have gotten over their skis, if you will, and bought more than they needed. In part, one of the dynamics was the safe harbour for ITC back in 2019, when we thought the ITC was going to go down,” explains Hall.

Inventory of newer modules, with a higher power output of up to 700W has also started to pop up, due to the uncertainties of the procurement from certain components of the modules, mostly wafers coming from China.

8 October 2024
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 8-9 October 2024 is our second PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The event in 2023 was a sell out success and 2024 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.
26 November 2024
Málaga, Spain
Understanding PV module supply to the European market in 2025. PV ModuleTech Europe 2024 is a two-day conference that tackles these challenges directly, with an agenda that addresses all aspects of module supplier selection; product availability, technology offerings, traceability of supply-chain, factory auditing, module testing and reliability, and company bankability.
11 March 2025
Frankfurt, Germany
The conference will gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing out to 2030 and beyond.
17 June 2025
Napa, USA
PV Tech has been running PV ModuleTech Conferences since 2017. PV ModuleTech USA, on 17-18 June 2025, will be our fourth PV ModulelTech conference dedicated to the U.S. utility scale solar sector. The event will gather the key stakeholders from solar developers, solar asset owners and investors, PV manufacturing, policy-making and and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out the PV module supply channels to the U.S. out to 2026 and beyond.

Read Next

June 12, 2024
Burns & McDonnell has started construction on Consumers Energy’s 297MWdc/250MWac solar project in the US state of Michigan.
June 12, 2024
Chinese solar PV manufacturer JinkoSolar has achieved a 25.42% conversion efficiency with a 182mm TOPCon module.
June 12, 2024
US renewables developer Origis Energy has commissioned the 200MW Escalante solar project in New Mexico alongside non-for-profit electricity utility Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association.
June 12, 2024
The Casey Fork solar project in Jefferson County, Illinois, will bring RWE’s total renewables capacity in Illinois to 750MW
June 12, 2024
Module manufacturer Canadian Solar has inaugurated its first production facility in the US with a 5GW TOPCon module assembly plant.
Premium
June 12, 2024
Prominent fire safety experts, solar professionals and veteran firefighters have serious concerns about new PV hazard control solutions.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
July 2, 2024
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
July 9, 2024
Sands Expo and Convention Centre, Singapore
Solar Media Events
September 24, 2024
Warsaw, Poland
Solar Media Events
September 24, 2024
Singapore, Asia