China’s new subsidy programme could support at least 30GW, says official

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email
China could install 40GW this year, even with the most pessimistic estimates of a new subsidy programme. Source: Panda Green Energy.

China’s government could financially support more than 30GW of solar capacity in 2019 and potentially as much as 50GW.

That’s the assessment of a former official and analysis conducted by PV Tech China. Total installations in the country could surpass at least 40GW as a result.

China is still putting the finishing touches to the plans but each iteration is increasingly centred around an auction process. There is no capacity limit, instead, a pot of funding will be ring-fenced to support the successful lowest bidders.

Wang Sicheng, a recently retired researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the powerful National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said: “If the previous draft was not changed, the total controlled amount of subsidy will be around RMB3 billion (US$447 million), which equals to 60 billion kWh priced at RMB0.05/kWh (US$0.007/kWh).

“Let’s say the average utilization hours are 1200, it is expected that 50GW of capacity will be listed as subsidized projects through tendering. This number is quite considerable. Even if subsidy per kWh is controlled at around an average of RMB0.07, there will still be 30GW of capacity, large enough to maintain the stable development of domestic PV market,” estimated Wang, who is now a member of Expert Advisory Committee of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPVIA).

Source: PV Tech.

Using the most conservative estimate above of 30GW, and adding in the first wave of unsubsidised projects, a new residential solar support carve-out plus the poverty alleviation programme and China could top 40GW of installed capacity in 2019.

China’s policy proposals remain in a state of flux with the industry increasingly keen for clarity around the new subsidy plans. Last week, the advisory firm AECEA said the country’s transition to a subsidy-free framework would likely take until 2021.

Additional reporting by Carrie Xiao

PV Tech Power 19, published in May, will include a detailed analysis of China’s ongoing solar policy realignment by Carrie Xiao

Read Next

April 9, 2021
A draft proposal put forward by China’s National Development and Reform Commission could see subsidies for new solar projects phased out, starting this year.
April 6, 2021
SunPower is to allow Maxeon Solar to the Performance Series (P Series) p-type mono-Passivated Emitter Rear Cell (PERC) shingled PV modules into the US market as part of a major change to initial manufacturing agreements.
April 6, 2021
The International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) director-general has hailed the start of a “decade of renewables”, following a 2020 that saw China and the US drive global solar installations.
PV Tech Premium
March 30, 2021
In exclusive analysis for PV Tech Premium subscribers, Mark Osborne scrutinises JA Solar's plans to have 40GW of module assembly capacity by the end of this year, and how it reached that capacity.
March 29, 2021
Despite additional solar and wind contributing to a record reduction in global coal generation last year, new renewable energy projects are still not being built quickly enough to keep pace with rising electricity demand.
March 29, 2021
More than 180GW of solar will be deployed globally this year as the sector defies headwinds including higher module prices and supply chain constraints, IHS Markit has said.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
April 20, 2021
Upcoming Webinars
April 28, 2021
4:00 - 4:30 PM CET
Solar Media Events
May 11, 2021