Chinese manufacturers account for nine of the world’s top ten polysilicon producers, led by Tongwei, GCL Technology, Daqo New Energy and Xinte Energy.
This is the key takeaway from ‘Polysilicon Market Outlook 2029’, the latest report published by polysilicon analyst Bernreuter Research. The report notes that little has changed at the top of the global polysilicon production rankings in recent years, with the top four manufacturers accounting for 65% of the market share in 2024, and ranking in the top four each year since 2022.
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Tongwei boasts a sizable lead in polysilicon production, as shown in the graph below. In 2024, the company’s polysilicon manufacturing capacity reached 910,000MT, close to double that of the 480,000MT of second-placed GCL. Tongwei’s largest facility, the 345,000MT plant in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, has a larger production capacity than the combined capacity of all other manufactures, save from GCL Technology and Daqo New Energy.
The report also notes that there was just one company from outside China to break into the top ten in 2024, Wacker Chemie. Headquartered in Germany, the chemicals group was the world’s largest polysilicon manufacturer between 2016 and 2019, but fell to fifth place in 2022 and then to eighth in 2024.
Bernreuter said there is a “good chance” it will remain in the top ten through to at least 2027, although this is based on the assumption that the US PV market “recovers from the crackdown of the Trump administration on renewables”, which has been a source of uncertainty for much of the US clean energy sector this year.
The consistently strong production figures from the industry leaders has contributed to a much-discussed oversupply of Chinese polysilicon in recent years; the latest figures from Bernreuter show that two-thirds of the new production capacity built between 2020 and 2024 was built by the 2024 top four manufacturers, which also accumulated two-thirds of “the huge inventories” held by Chinese manufacturers as of the end of the year.
Earlier this year, figures from Bernreuter showed that polysilicon prices had collapsed from a high of US$39/kg in 2022 to less than US$4.50/kg—below the cash cost of most manufacturers—triggering efforts to cut production capacity. However, Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research, said at the time that it is unlikely prices will recover to above US$5/kg by 2027, suggesting that oversupply will continue to present a financial challenge for many industry leaders.
“The Chinese polysilicon industry reached a share of 93.5% in the global output of 2024,” said Bernreuter, who also authored the report published this week. “This dominance is also reflected in the ranking of the world’s largest manufacturers.”
