‘Cut throat’ polysilicon market could see sector consolidate in 2024

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email

“Cut-throat” competition in the polysilicon production industry in 2024 could push many Chinese producers out of business, according to analysis from industry research firm Bernreuter Research.

A ‘shakeout’ wave – where an industry consolidates and some businesses are pushed out or acquired by competitors – could be triggered by massive capacity expansion by the largest producers next year, most notably Chinese producer Tongwei.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research said: “Tongwei is planning to bring 575,000 tonnes of new production capacity on stream next year, whereas we expect a market growth of 200,000 tonnes at most.” Along with other capacity expansions from big companies, Bernreuter said that “If all new capacities were ramped up in 2024, oversupply would swell to 1.4 million tonnes. With its low manufacturing costs and proven product quality, Tongwei will push most, if not all, new entrants out of the market.”

Polysilicon prices have plummeted this year, which Bernteuter predicts will continue into next year as supply outstrips demand significantly and Chinese players who entered the market when prices were high in 2020-21 will be unable to compete. Of the 36 companies that Bernreuter’s research screened, 14 are in the process of building or ramping up a polysilicon plant. Chinese polysilicon producer Daqo New Energy announced capacity expansions of 100,000 tonnes last December, which came online earlier this year.

The shakeout will result in the elimination of around 2.4 million tonnes of polysilicon.

Notably, non-Chinese producers will be exempt from this “shakeout’, the research said. This is despite the Chinese share of global polysilicon production rising to over 90% this year.

This is because of the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) in the US, which bans any product from Xinjiang province which cannot prove that it did not use forced labour from entering the US. Currently around 40% of the world’s polysilicon comes from Xinjiang.

The UFLPA has been significant enough to create a higher-price market for non-Chinese polysilicon from producers like Wacker Chemie and REC Group, Bernreuter said.

However, last week REC Group announced the closure of its Norway polysilicon plant because of high electricity prices and a fiercely competitive polysilicon market.

Earlier this month, PV Tech head of research Finlay Colville published a blog that predicts a downturn in PV manufacturing across the board in 2024, in part because of falling prices and overcapacity.

As pertains to the UFLPA and the US, Colville predicts that US-based cadmium telluride (CadTel) thin film solar module manufacturer First Solar will be one of the only winners from the market downturn next year. First Solar is isolated from the polysilicon supply chain that pulls the strings for the majority of the world’s solar companies, as it uses CadTel technology.

10 March 2026
Frankfurt, Germany
The conference will gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing out to 2030 and beyond.

Read Next

September 4, 2025
The Czech national cybersecurity agency has warned that Chinese solar inverters represent a threat to the country’s data security.
September 4, 2025
US polysilicon company Highland Materials has aimed to begin construction at its polysilicon plant in the second half of 2026.
Premium
September 4, 2025
PV Talk: Highland Materials' CEO Richard Rast explains how the company aims to compete in the polysilicon landscape through US innovation.
September 3, 2025
Huasun claims it has set new record efficiencies for HJT-perovskite tandem solar cells at both laboratory and commercial scales.
September 3, 2025
LONGi, Jinko Solar, Trina Solar and JA Solar posted combined net losses of nearly RMB11 billion (US$1.54 billion) in H1 2025.
August 29, 2025
Chinese module maker JA Solar has launched DesertBlue, a PV module designed for desert and semi-arid regions. 

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK
Solar Media Events
October 2, 2025
London,UK
Solar Media Events
October 7, 2025
Manila, Philippines