Ember calls for greater policy support, with solar on track to meet 2030 targets

A highly positive takeaway from the report is that solar additions are growing at a considerable pace. Ember expects the world to add 593GW of new solar capacity this year, 29% higher than in 2023, which saw a record 87% increase in year-on-year capacity additions.

Indeed, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that its net zero scenario includes more than 90% of the growth of renewable power capacity to come from the solar and wind sectors, with the installed capacity of the former set to quintuple between 2022 and 2030. The IEA also expects the world to surpass 2TW of cumulative solar capacity by the end of this year.

This strong growth means that the global solar sector is very close to meeting the speed of new additions necessary to meet the tripling targets set out at the COP28 conference, as shown in the chart above. Both the utility-scale and distributed PV installation forecasts come from the IEA, but other, even more ambitious forecasts exist; according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the world’s cumulative installed solar capacity will reach 6,640.3GW by the end of the decade, easily enough to meet the tripling target.

The chart also demonstrates how national targets, those set out in the policies of individual governments as opposed to forecasts made by market analysts, are significantly less ambitious. IEA figures suggest that forecast utility-scale PV additions alone would be enough to meet the targets enshrined in national policies by 2030, which speaks to both the exponential growth of the global solar industry, but also the fact that government targets are not moving as quickly as other goals.

Greater policy support needed

The rapidly-declining cost of generating power from renewable energy sources in general, and solar in particular, has led to this disparity in forecasts, where market conditions make exponential solar investments attractive, but national governments have not yet implemented policies to support this transition.

This is reflected throughout the Ember report, which breaks the world into six regions, and notes that even the area whose government targets are closest to the capacity additions needed by 2030 – the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) – these targets only account for around two-thirds of the capacity additions needed.

This is demonstrated in the graph below, with both the OECD and Asia having a disparity of more than 1TW between stated government targets and minimum capacity additions necessary to meet the tripling target. Perhaps more ominously, Latin America and the Caribbean’s government targets only just account for more than half of the capacity needed by 2030, and in Eurasia and Sub-Saharan Africa, government targets account for less than half of the new capacity additions that will be needed.

“Year after year, renewables growth continues to exceed expectations. Prices are falling, markets are surging and technological efficiency is improving,” said Dr Katye Altieri, an electricity analyst at Ember and one of the authors of the report. “What’s missing are high ambitions and confidence from countries—national targets are outdated and should be updated to reflect that a tripling is now within reach.”

This call for greater policy support echoes similar arguments made by trade body SolarPower Europe, which, last week, called for greater legislation to support the development of agrivoltaics (agriPV) in Europe in particular.

It is notable that, of the regions profiled by Ember, the two with the most installed renewable capacity have clear policies in place to encourage further clean power investments. China set a target for 1.2TW of cumulative renewable energy capacity installs by 2030 – which it reached in July this year – and Europe, where many of the OECD’s members are located, has benefitted from the latest round of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), which EU member states submitted for approval last year.

Solar to drive new European targets

While there is no guarantee that the mere presence of government targets will ensure the tripling target is met, clear goals to help steer individual countries to this objective will not go amiss. The Ember report notes that, since the COP28 conference last year, just eight countries have updated their targets; all of them are EU member states, and submitted these new targets as part of the NECP submissions, demonstrating the value of such a system.

Solar power features heavily in these new plans, with Ember noting that, across the eight countries, they are now planning to add over 10GW of new solar capacity, which will drive a net increase in renewable capacity installation targets of 4GW, with many countries revising down their aims for the wind sector.

Five of the countries – Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Luxembourg and Sweden – also increased their solar capacity installation targets to 2030, and were the five countries to revise up, not down, their total clean power capacity targets since COP28.

The new renewable power installation targets of these eight countries are demonstrated in the chart above, with “other” renewable technologies including hydropower. Europe’s appetite for new solar capacity is nothing new, with S&P Global Commodity Insights reporting last week that Europe will add 110GW of new capacity next year.

Two of the countries – Italy and Denmark – now expect to add more new solar capacity than any other single technology source, and with Italy expecting to add 79GW of new solar capacity, solar now accounts for the majority of planned new capacity installations across the eight countries. Utility-scale solar, in particular, has been in high demand in Italy this year, with developers adding around 579MW of new utility-scale solar in the first quarter of this year, a 373% increase over the same period of 2023.

Solar is also a key component of many smaller markets. While Latvia is aiming to install just 2GW of solar capacity by 2030, this would be a significant increase over the 54MW of capacity in operation at the end of 2023, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

“This Ember report highlights that the renewables industry can deliver the scale required to address the climate challenge, if the right policies are in place,” said Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance. “However, ambitious national targets, combined with long term energy plans and enabling frameworks, are essential to unlocking the full potential of this transition.”