India’s short-term hurdles won’t stop four-fold PV boom in a decade

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email
Fitch Solutions: Existing renewable support policies will be respected even if Modi is not re-elected (Credit: Shivam Kumar / Pixabay)

Policy headwinds in India will not divert the PV sector from a decade-long path of colossal growth backed by the government, according to Fitch Solutions.

The firm’s latest update predicts Indian PV capacity to ramp up by an average, annual 15.3% between 2018 and 2028, jumping from 26GW to 105.9GW in the period.

The government, Fitch Solutions said, will keep up the momentum through a recipe of “aggressive” growth targets, numerous tenders and policies to unlock investment towards solar.

Thailand, Vietnam imports to sidestep tariffs for China

According to the firm, India’s adoption last year of 25% tariffs for Chinese and Malaysian cells and modules will create uncertainties and costs but these will lessen in the long term.

The duties, Fitch Solutions argued, will likely be scrapped after their two-year expiry date, if it emerges they didn’t succeed in kickstarting a local manufacturing scene able to compete with Chinese imports.

In the interim, the firm continued, plummeting technology costs mean developers can resort to alternative import routes; Thailand and Vietnam, which Chinese manufacturers are expanding to, are already being tapped into.

According to Fitch Solutions, the lack of clarity around the goods and services tax – thought to up PV costs by 5.8% since its roll-out in 2017 – looks set to dispel. Last December’s government clarifications pave the way for developers to negotiate tax reliefs for existing PPAs.

PV’s wish list as India heads to the polls

The Indian PV predictions herald a brighter outlook after a tough 2018, when execution challenges and policy uncertainty sparked a 27.8% drop in installations.

The government – currently in the midst of six-week general elections – has been urged by consultants to “work hard” to restore investor confidence after last year’s “hammering”.

The prediction of Fitch Solutions is that even if prime minister Narendra Modi is not re-elected – in its view, such a scenario is not likely – his successors would respect existing policies to promote renewables.

As the firm noted, the reform set in motion in recent years includes 12GW in installations through the Central Public Sector Undertaking programme, the adoption of renewable power obligations and grid upgrades; Tamil Nadu and other states are adding to the efforts with separate targets and schemes.

Read Next

April 13, 2021
Europe’s power networks need to embrace flexibility and whole systems approaches on much larger scales if they are to be capable of accommodating the levels of renewable power necessary to hit 2030 targets.
April 9, 2021
LONGi Solar will supply its high-efficiency modules to two projects in Malaysia totalling 190MW that were awarded in the third round of country’s large-scale solar tender programme.
April 9, 2021
A draft proposal put forward by China’s National Development and Reform Commission could see subsidies for new solar projects phased out, starting this year.
PV Tech Premium
April 8, 2021
After a challenging year, India’s solar sector stands primed for something of a rebound. But a host of familiar issues, from the perilous state of DISCOMs to regulatory uncertainty, run the risk of stymying future growth. Vinay Rustagi, managing director at consultancy Bridge to India, talks to PV Tech about the future prospects for Indian solar.
April 8, 2021
Tata Power Solar has expanded its PV manufacturing facility in Bengaluru, India, taking the total production capacity of modules and cells to 1.1GW.
April 6, 2021
SunPower is to allow Maxeon Solar to the Performance Series (P Series) p-type mono-Passivated Emitter Rear Cell (PERC) shingled PV modules into the US market as part of a major change to initial manufacturing agreements.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
April 20, 2021
Upcoming Webinars
April 28, 2021
4:00 - 4:30 PM CET
Solar Media Events
May 11, 2021