European PV sliding towards cannibalisation as roll-out doubles

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
The post-FiT transition will bring uncertainty despite the prospects for meteoric growth, Wood Mackenzie said (Credit: Wood Mackenzie)

The same cost declines facilitating the meteoric growth of European PV could dent profitability as developers grapple with a subsidy-free reality, according to Wood Mackenzie.

The firm released stats today showing the pace of PV installations will double across Europe (Turkey included) over the next three years, eventually reaching 20GW per year.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

The analysis found that soaring additions could see installed PV capacity hit the 250GW threshold Europe-wide by 2024, up from less than 150GW today.

The momentum will find Europe at a time of transition from feed-in tariff (FiT) schemes to auctions, with Wood Mackenzie recording 24GW awarded through tenders last year alone.

Tom Heggarty, senior analyst at the firm, was quoted in a statement discussing the same challenge – the impacts of a subsidy-free reality – that dominated talks at this year’s Intersolar and Solar Media events.

Investors, Heggarty said, are increasingly exposed to wholesale power prices as they turn to corporate PPAs and merchant plays. Cannibalisation, he added, will become a “growing issue”.

“In developed European power markets, we already see that power prices can fall below €30/MWh and rapidly towards zero as renewable energy penetration rises about 50%,” Heggarty remarked.

“Most low-priced hours are overnight but midday price erosion is a near certainty as solar’s market share grows,” the senior analyst pointed out.

Wood Mackenzie expects Germany to remain the uncontested leader of European PV, installing 20GW between 2019 and 2024 to hit a cumulative 65GW-plus by the latter year.

At 19GW added over the next five years, Spain will be the second fastest installer and almost catch up with Italy and France in cumulative terms, with all three countries sitting in the 25-31GW region.

The cannibalisation warnings emerge as solar hits price milestones at auctions in Germany (€54.7/MWh), France (€62.7/MWh) and other major markets.

Germany and the Netherlands are among those slower in embracing subsidy-free PV, with Berlin currently legally forced to freeze government support when its industry reaches 52GW.

2 December 2025
Málaga, Spain
Understanding PV module supply to the European market in 2026. PV ModuleTech Europe 2025 is a two-day conference that tackles these challenges directly, with an agenda that addresses all aspects of module supplier selection; product availability, technology offerings, traceability of supply-chain, factory auditing, module testing and reliability, and company bankability.
10 March 2026
Frankfurt, Germany
The conference will gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing out to 2030 and beyond.

Read Next

July 3, 2025
Spanish IPP Zelestra has secured a €235 million (US$277 million) increase to its sustainability-linked loan, bringing the total to €770 million.
Premium
July 3, 2025
Meeting the UK’s solar targets will not simply require the installation of new capacity, but investment in grid infrastructure and training.
July 1, 2025
French private equity firm Ardian Clean Energy Evergreen Fund (ACEEF) has bought 117 solar PV plants, worth 116MW of total capacity in several locations in Italy.
Premium
June 30, 2025
Solargis CEO Marcel Suri explores three areas where new standards could help underpin greater efficiency, accuracy and market resilience.
June 30, 2025
Eni subsidiary Plentiude has started operations at the northern block of its 330MW Renopool solar portfolio in Spain.
June 27, 2025
Statkraft has signed PPAs with Better Energy to purchase energy from two solar power plants in Poland with a total capacity of 64GWh.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Media Partners, Solar Media Events
September 2, 2025
Mexico City, Mexico
Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 22, 2025
Bilbao, Spain
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK