NREL: US utility-scale solar PV could be as cheap as US$16.89/MWh by 2030

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
The Techren 2 sola project under construction in the US. Image: Nextracker

Utility-scale solar PV in the US could be as a cheap as US$16.89/MWh by the end of the decade, new analysis published by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) has shown.

Research institute NREL has published its 2021 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) report which provides electricity generation technology cost and performance data to inform the US electricity sector.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

It has highlighted how the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) in 2019 for utility-scale PV ranged from US$31.32/MWh for ‘class 1’ solar PV, effectively NREL’s most cost-effective class, to US$50.23/MWh for ‘class 10’.

It expects LCOEs to fall to between US$29.39/MWh and US$47.14/MWh for class 1 and class 10 projects this year, with a central ‘class 5’ estimate of US$35.98/MWh, before tumbling to between US$16.89/MWh and US$27.10/MWh by 2030.

While costs will continue to fall out to 2050, NREL’s analysis shows a levelling off of cost reductions. According to this year’s ATB, class 1 solar PV will be able to generate at US$15.06/MWh in 2040 and US$13.35/MWh by 2050. The below graph shows NREL’s cost trajectory for solar out to 2050, while also highlighting the narrowing of the differences in LCOE between class 1 and class 10 utility-scale solar PV over those years.

Utility-scale solar PV LCOE will continue to fall dramatically out to 2030, NREL’s analysis shows, before tailing off. Image: PV Tech.

The ATB collates current and projected data into one format for energy analysts, modelers and system planners. It is based on original projections for the renewable and storage technologies and scenarios for technologically-based innovation for fossil fuels.

“Comparisons of possible future power systems depend on assumptions and scenarios,” said Laura Vimmerstedt, NREL energy analyst and ATB project lead. “The ATB provides critical cost and performance assumptions for energy analysis, including studies at national labs and beyond.”

Read Next

July 16, 2025
Planning uncertainty and policy instability regarding renewables in Queensland have seen it slip in investment attractiveness, with New South Wales now leading Australia.
July 16, 2025
The New South Wales government has announced AU$26.2 million in funding for several Australian solar PV and battery initiatives.
July 15, 2025
Poland has awarded 1.6GW of solar PV in this year’s renewable energy auction, according to the country’s Energy Regulatory Office.
July 14, 2025
Australian renewables developer Edify Energy has submitted plans for a 300MWac solar-plus-storage site in Victoria to Australia’s Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act.
July 14, 2025
ACWA Power has signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) for five solar PV projects in the country.
July 11, 2025
Solar firms submitted over 1,300 expressions of interest to the latest Italian government renewable energy tender, for a combined 17.5GW of proposed generation capacity.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Media Partners, Solar Media Events
September 2, 2025
Mexico City, Mexico
Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 22, 2025
Bilbao, Spain
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK