On 18 September, the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association released the latest prices for solar-grade polysilicon.
Prices rose slightly in the week of September 18 compared with September 11. The average price of n-type material reached RMB41,700/ton (US$5,933), up 0.24% month-on-month, while other quotations remained stable.
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Specific quotations are as follows: n-type trading price of RMB39,000-44,000/ton, averaged at RMB41,700/ton, up 0.24% week-on-week; n-type granular silicon trading price of RMB36,500-37,500/ton, averaged at RMB37,300/ton, flat week-on-week; recycled material trading price of RMB35,000-39,000/ton, averaged at RMB36,400/ton, flat week-on-week; mono dense material trading price of RMB33,000-36,000/ton, averaged at RMB34,500/ton, flat week-on-week and mono popcorn material trading price of RMB30,000-33,000/ton, averaged at RMB31,400/ton, flat week-on-week.
The Silicon Industry Branch noted two main reasons for the price resurgence. On the one hand, during this period of intensive order signing, top enterprises were more willing to sign orders to maintain high prices, while the rest were not proactive in contract signature. As a result, several large orders were ultimately completed by large manufacturers at higher prices. On the other hand, polysilicon prices have rebounded from the bottom, with the upstream and downstream reaching a consensus on the bottom price. The Silicon Industry Branch said prices were not expected to drop in the short term. Downstream companies may have the potential to rebuild inventory.
On the wafer side, prices have also begun to stabilise. The average trading price remained at RMB1.11/piece for n-type G10L mono wafers (182*183.75 mm/130μm/256mm), at 1.26 yuan/piece for n-type G12R mono wafers (182*210mm/130μm), and at RMB1.5/piece for n-type G12 mono wafers (210*210 mm/150μm).
It is worth noting that G12R trading has improved significantly. Some cell companies have accepted the price increase. However, from the perspective of the entire industry chain, there is a stalemate in the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream.
In September, wafer supply was about 5GW less than downstream demand, and the inventory continued to decrease to around 27GW. However, as a result of domestic demand slowdown, end users found it hard to accept the price increase. Wafer prices remained stable as a result. It is difficult for prices to go up.
In terms of cell prices, according to InfoLink price monitoring, the current price of p-type M10 cells has dropped to RMB0.265/W, ranging from RMB0.265-0.285/W; the price of G12 cells has dropped to RMB0.275/W, ranging from RMB0.275-0.29 yuan/W.
The Silicon Industry Branch said that although the current p-type capacity was gradually being phased out, the capacity reduction was still not as fast as the demand decrease on the module end. In the context of oversupply, p-type cell prices may still fall in the short term.
N-type cell prices stabilised briefly. Over the past two weeks, M10, G12R, G12 cell prices remained at RMB0.27-0.285/W, RMB0.27-0.29/W and RMB0.285-0.29/W respectively.
Winning module bids repeatedly hitting new lows
The centralised module procurement bids by China’s central and state-owned enterprises have started one after another. The bid-opening prices have continued to fall, setting new low records.
On 18 September, China’s Huaneng Group released its 2024 PV module (the second batch) framework agreement bids. The bid-opening results indicated that the n-type bifacial module quotation went as low as RMB0.655/W. The quotation of top module companies was as low as RMB0.675/W. The lowest bidding price was only RMB0.6221/W. Such a low price has taken insiders by surprise.
InfoLink’s price monitoring shows that the prices of n-type TOPCon mono modules used in China’s PV projects ranged from RMB0.75 to 0.77/W. Among them, the price of centralised procurement projects is around RMB0.68-0.73/W and the price of distributed projects is around RMB0.67-0.8/W.
The 182 PERC bifacial modules and HJT modules are priced at around RMB0.67-0.78/W and RMB0.8-0.93/W respectively. The prices for large projects tend to be on the lower side. The manufacturers maintain a price close to about RMB0.9/W.
According to InfoLink, manufacturers were actively vying for orders, which confirmed the earlier feedback from manufacturers that the order-taking status was unclear. As the inventory accumulated continues to disrupt the market, it is difficult for module prices to recover. Manufacturers are consequently developing increasingly aggressive price competition strategies.
