Polysilicon supply dynamics to remain volatile - Bernreuter Research

Bernreuter said,

According to Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research the supply of polysilicon for the PV industry will continue to be constrained in 2021, while significant overcapacity is looming in 2022 and possibly intensify in 2023.

Bernreuter Research’s latest market report, “Polysilicon Market Outlook 2024” paints a picture that continued polysilicon capacity expansions by a few major China-based suppliers that have focused on advanced manufacturing processes at scale, could result in polysilicon spot prices falling back to 2019 levels of below US$8 or even US$7 per kilogram in 2022. 

Bernreuter said, “In order for the market to remain balanced, global PV installations would have to grow by 30% annually both in 2022 and 2023 to reach 270 GW in 2023. That is not impossible, but would require the PV market to speed up enormously.” 

The PV industry has become increasingly bullish in 2020, despite COVID-19, a doubling of polysilicon prices as a second recent wave of former polysilicon producers have curtailed production or exited the sector. Bernreuter noted that around 275,000MT of polysilicon production had disappeared in the latest consolidation round, compared to 135,000 MT during the first round between late 2010 and early 2013.

Demand in 2020 could rise to around 127GW in 2020, according to Bernreuter Research and other market research firms, which has already produced other material shortages such as solar glass, a material expected to remined constrained until the later part of 2021. 

Some market research firms have forecasted global PV installs could surpass over 200GW per annum in the next few years, fuelled by China’s low carbon directives expected in March 2021, coupled to Green New Deals as part of larger economic recovery policies in the US and EU.
Leading ‘Solar Module Super League (SMSL) member, JinkoSolar recently suggested that PV installs in China in 2021 could be in the range of 60GW to 70GW. With annual global installs threatening to surpass 200GW per annum in a few years, further polysilicon expansions would be required to prevent another round of price increases, due to capacity constraints. 

Read Next

October 4, 2022
The government of India has released guidelines on the second round of its Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme designed to develop greater domestic PV production and slash the country’s reliance on imports.
September 29, 2022
Norwegian polysilicon manufacturer REC Silicon has appointed William Kurtis Levens as its new CEO, succeeding James May in the position.
PV Tech Premium
September 27, 2022
Europe must build out its own large-scale, vertically integrated solar PV manufacturing base as a means to ensure its clean energy transition.
September 22, 2022
JA Solar has been promoted to AAA-Rating status for the first time, joining LONGi Solar and Trina Solar in this exclusive bankability ratings, now recognised widely across the PV sector as one of the most accurate and detailed ranking systems on offer to PV module buyers when undertaking supplier due diligence.
September 13, 2022
JinkoSolar has signed two major polysilicon supply contracts worth nearly US$30 billion in the past two weeks as it looks to lock in supply.
September 7, 2022
Module manufacturing major Risen Energy has posted strong revenue and profit figures for the first half of the year, driven by a large increase in product sales and unit sales prices.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

On-Demand Webinars, Solar Media Events
October 11, 2022
Virtual event
Upcoming Webinars
October 18, 2022
10am (EDT) / 4pm (CEST)
Solar Media Events
November 29, 2022
Malaga, Spain