Solar to defy module price, supply chain headwinds on way to 181GW in 2021: IHS

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email
Solar installs are expected to be particularly strong in China and the US. Image: Nextracker.

More than 180GW of solar will be deployed globally this year as the sector defies headwinds including higher module prices and supply chain constraints, IHS Markit has said.

In its solar deployment forecast update issued today, the research group has predicted 27% year-on-year growth in solar installations for 2021, with total installs reaching 181GW.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

This figure falls broadly in line with other forecasts issued for the year. Last month BloombergNEF forecasted that just over 184.5GW would be deployed this year in an upgrade on its initial 2021 forecast published at the start of the year, however its projections also included headroom for up to 209GW to be installed this year, dependent on installs in high-growth markets such as China and the US.

IHS said the solar industry would defy headwinds such as higher module prices, longer project lead times and rising freight costs, with the generation class now “moving into a new phase” which placed emphasis on three critical factors: profitability, technology leadership and consolidation.

IHS is expecting strong performances from several key markets this year, with China to surpass 60GW in new solar capacity, the US set to install 27GW and India set to take advantage of a small window wherein solar import taxes contract to install as much as 12GW. Europe will also experience a bounce in project completions triggered by tenders held last year.

But IHS also warned that spiking module prices could see some projects rendered uneconomical.

Module prices have started to creep up in recent months, driven by strong demand at a time of spiralling material and component costs, most notably polysilicon and glass. Module price increases began to be felt in earnest in China at the start of the year, however those increases are widely anticipated to spread into overseas markets before too long.   

Josefin Berg, research manager for Clean Energy Technology at IHS Markit, said that while leading module manufacturers sold out for the first half of 2021, there was “no indication” of weakness in module prices in July and no major material bottlenecks, leading to confidence in the research firm’s bullish forecasts.

The upstream solar sector will, however, pivot towards a new focus, with greater importance placed on profitability. Greater consolidation is also expected to be felt, with IHS noting that almost three-quarters (72%) of modules were produced by the top 10 manufacturers in 2020.

“Profitability in the solar supply chain is becoming critical since the leading module companies are publicly listed and require cash to accelerate investments in product R&D and equipment CAPEX to prepare for the commercial scale of next solar generation technologies from 2023. Investments will also be needed to adapt module supply chain to lower-carbon and ESG standards demanded by the market,” said Edurne Zoco, executive director for Clean Energy Technology at IHS Markit.  

25 November 2025
Warsaw, Poland
Large Scale Solar Central and Eastern Europe continues to be the place to leverage a network that has been made over more than 10 years, to build critical partnerships to develop solar projects throughout the region.
10 March 2026
Frankfurt, Germany
The conference will gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing out to 2030 and beyond.

Read Next

October 3, 2025
SunStrong Management has raised US$900 million to refinance a 'large portfolio' of residential solar assets developed by SunPower.
October 3, 2025
Chinese government policies and supply-side production cuts will drive a significant increase in solar and storage component costs.
September 30, 2025
Chinese solar firm SoleFiori (Hongjun New Energy) has signed an agreement with the Saudi Arabian government to build a 6GW heterojunction technology (HJT) module production facility in the country.
September 29, 2025
German renewables developer ABO Energy is looking to begin owning and operating its energy projects in a transition from a “pure play” developer to an independent power producer (IPP) model.
September 26, 2025
Residential solar and energy storage could meet all the projected demand from US data centres over the next five years if tech companies invest in household energy infrastructure.
September 26, 2025
Chinese president Xi Jinping has unveiled a new climate target for China at the United Nations Climate Change Summit, which aims to cut by 7-10% China's peak greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
October 7, 2025
Manila, Philippines
Solar Media Events
October 7, 2025
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
Solar Media Events
October 21, 2025
New York, USA
Solar Media Events
November 25, 2025
Warsaw, Poland