Deutsche Bank guides solar industry overcapacity at 16% through 2017

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email

According to Deutsche Bank’s US market analyst Vishal Shah, strong PV manufacturing capacity expansion growth in the second half of 2016 and 2017 is expected to lead to a global 16% solar module oversupply through the period.

Shah said in an investor note that he raised 2016/17 global end-market demand estimates, due to strong growth in the first half of the year in China and strong growth outlook in the US and other emerging markets such as India in 2017.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

However, near-term weakness in China and PV project push-outs in the US and weakness in the US residential market had created a demand lull. As a result, the Deutsche Bank analyst expects PV module prices to fall to the low US$0.40/W range in most markets globally compared to a range of mid 40c-mid 50c/W currently.

Shah said in the research note that the expected ‘demand pause’ would last until the second half of 2017. After this period he expected US demand momentum to pick-up, stabilising module prices and expected a sharp recovery in the US market from 2018 onwards.

Deutsche Bank expects global PV installs in 2016 to reach around 72.8GW, up from 53.7GW in the previous year. However, Deutsche Bank expects global PV installs to fall slightly from its upward revised 2016 forecast with installs in 2017 topping 71.8GW.

7 October 2025
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 7-8 October 2025 is our third PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The events in 2023 and 2024 were a sell out success and 2025 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.

Read Next

August 6, 2025
The RMI has published updated guidance on how resilience to damage from tropical cyclones can be built into all PV systems.
August 6, 2025
A subsidiary of JinkoSolar has filed a lawsuit in Munich accusing LONGi Green Energy and several subsidiaries of infringing on a solar cell manufacturing patent.
August 6, 2025
The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has announced that three companies will receive AU$45.5 million (US$29.5 million) in funding through the Solar Sunshot Program.
August 5, 2025
China’s leading polysilicon firms are reportedly considering shutting down one third of the country’s polysilicon capacity and restructuring the sector, following years of overcapacity and tumbling prices.
Sponsored
August 4, 2025
Risen Energy’s Bob Hao discusses the company’s latest range of integrated energy solutions and recent developments in HJT module technology.
August 4, 2025
Waaree Energies has commissioned a 1.8GW solar module manufacturing line at its factory in Chikhli, Navsari district, Gujarat.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
September 16, 2025
Athens, Greece
Solar Media Events
September 30, 2025
Seattle, USA
Solar Media Events
October 1, 2025
London, UK
Solar Media Events
October 2, 2025
London,UK
Solar Media Events
October 7, 2025
Manila, Philippines