Deutsche Bank guides solar industry overcapacity at 16% through 2017

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email

According to Deutsche Bank’s US market analyst Vishal Shah, strong PV manufacturing capacity expansion growth in the second half of 2016 and 2017 is expected to lead to a global 16% solar module oversupply through the period.

Shah said in an investor note that he raised 2016/17 global end-market demand estimates, due to strong growth in the first half of the year in China and strong growth outlook in the US and other emerging markets such as India in 2017.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Unlock unlimited access for 12 whole months of distinctive global analysis

Photovoltaics International is now included.

  • Regular insight and analysis of the industry’s biggest developments
  • In-depth interviews with the industry’s leading figures
  • Unlimited digital access to the PV Tech Power journal catalogue
  • Unlimited digital access to the Photovoltaics International journal catalogue
  • Access to more than 1,000 technical papers
  • Discounts on Solar Media’s portfolio of events, in-person and virtual

Or continue reading this article for free

However, near-term weakness in China and PV project push-outs in the US and weakness in the US residential market had created a demand lull. As a result, the Deutsche Bank analyst expects PV module prices to fall to the low US$0.40/W range in most markets globally compared to a range of mid 40c-mid 50c/W currently.

Shah said in the research note that the expected ‘demand pause’ would last until the second half of 2017. After this period he expected US demand momentum to pick-up, stabilising module prices and expected a sharp recovery in the US market from 2018 onwards.

Deutsche Bank expects global PV installs in 2016 to reach around 72.8GW, up from 53.7GW in the previous year. However, Deutsche Bank expects global PV installs to fall slightly from its upward revised 2016 forecast with installs in 2017 topping 71.8GW.

8 October 2024
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
PV Tech has been running an annual PV CellTech Conference since 2016. PV CellTech USA, on 8-9 October 2024 is our second PV CellTech conference dedicated to the U.S. manufacturing sector. The event in 2023 was a sell out success and 2024 will once again gather the key stakeholders from PV manufacturing, equipment/materials, policy-making and strategy, capital equipment investment and all interested downstream channels and third-party entities. The goal is simple: to map out PV manufacturing in the U.S. out to 2030 and beyond.
26 November 2024
Málaga, Spain
Understanding PV module supply to the European market in 2025. PV ModuleTech Europe 2024 is a two-day conference that tackles these challenges directly, with an agenda that addresses all aspects of module supplier selection; product availability, technology offerings, traceability of supply-chain, factory auditing, module testing and reliability, and company bankability.

Read Next

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
April 10, 2024
Dallas, Texas USA
Solar Media Events
April 17, 2024
Lisbon, Portugal
Solar Media Events
May 1, 2024
Dallas, Texas
Solar Media Events
May 21, 2024
Napa, USA