Can Europe become the next major market for Indian solar manufacturers?

For years, the US has been the dominant overseas market for Indian solar module suppliers, absorbing an estimated US$792–US$800 million, with India primarily functioning as a major exporter of solar components to the US. 

However, as Washington tightens trade restrictions and accelerates domestic manufacturing under protectionist policies, Indian exporters are increasingly being pushed to diversify.  

In April 2026, the US Department of Commerce (DoC) issued preliminary affirmative determinations in anti-dumping (AD) investigations on crystalline silicon PV cells imported from India, assigning a dumping margin of 123.04% across all producers supplying cells, including those assembled into modules for the US market. 

When combined with earlier countervailing duty (CVD) findings, total preliminary AD/CVD rates for Indian solar products now reach approximately 234%. Together with an additional 18% reciprocal tariff imposed in February 2026, the measures have effectively rendered the US market commercially unviable for Indian solar manufacturers. 

At the same time, discussions around the EU–India Free Trade Agreement (FTA), concluded in January 2026, are raising a key question: could Europe emerge as the next major export destination for Indian solar manufacturers? 

To explore this, PV Tech Premium spoke to Yana Hryshko, managing consultant, head of solar supply chain research at Wood Mackenzie and Charith Konda, energy specialist, India Mobility and New Energy at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). 

The conversation comes at a time when India is simultaneously ramping up domestic solar manufacturing under its Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and seeking new export markets to absorb rapidly expanding module capacity. 

India–EU solar trade: opportunity building, but still limited 

While India has built significant manufacturing scale across modules and cells, exports to Europe remain relatively small compared with China’s dominant presence. 

The deal could mark an important step in deepening clean technology cooperation, particularly as India looks to move further up the solar value chain into wafers, ingots and cells under its domestic PLI and import-substitution programmes.   

According to Konda, the deal has the potential to “boost trade between the EU and India in several goods and services,” while also strengthening cooperation in critical technologies such as semiconductors and clean energy systems. In his view, this could ultimately support “India’s capabilities in wafers, ingots, and cells,” and help expand module exports into Europe. 

However, translating policy alignment into meaningful market share will depend on execution. Analysts warn that trade access alone will not guarantee market penetration. 

According to Hryshko, Europe’s solar procurement environment is structurally more complex than emerging markets, with high expectations around performance, certification and long-term reliability.  

“Europe is a very demanding, high-value market and buyers want the best products available,” she says. “It is difficult to imagine European buyers suddenly switching from 25% efficiency Chinese-made panels to 23% efficiency Indian-made panels.” 

She adds that utility-scale procurement decisions are heavily driven by bankability, not just price or trade policy alignment. 

“For utility-scale projects, bankability is extremely important. Buyers are not only evaluating a manufacturer’s financial performance, but also track record, after-sales service and long-term reliability. When you procure modules, it is effectively a 25-year relationship.” 

Solar inverters offer a slightly different opportunity, particularly as Europe introduces cybersecurity-related restrictions on Chinese power electronics. However, Hryshko cautions that this does not automatically translate into space for Indian suppliers. 

“Chinese manufacturers are already ahead because they have established manufacturing facilities in Europe,” she says, citing production bases in Poland and Hungary. 

“EU policies are designed to support European manufacturing rather than simply replace Chinese suppliers with alternatives from elsewhere. Therefore, India must build trust, not just capacity.” 

The analysts agree that India’s biggest challenge in Europe is not production scale, but market perception. 

Hryshko stresses that Indian manufacturers remain largely invisible in European solar supply chains. She argues that India must invest far more heavily in marketing, investor engagement and physical presence in Europe if it wants to compete. 

“They need to work much harder on marketing and positioning themselves as reliable partners. They need to engage not only with developers and engineering, procurement and construction (EPCs), but also with investors, banks and financial institutions.” 

Importantly, she highlights that Indian companies such as Adani, Vikram Solar, Avaada and Waaree are already financially strong — but have yet to translate that strength into European confidence. 

China factor: EU diversification creates a window — but not a guarantee 

The strategic backdrop to India’s opportunity is Europe’s ongoing attempt to reduce dependence on Chinese clean energy supply chains. In 2024, China was reported to be the largest supplier of solar panels, accounting for 98% of all imports, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU. 

However, Europe’s policy direction is increasingly centred on strengthening domestic manufacturing rather than simply substituting Chinese imports with alternative external suppliers. 

Last month, the European Commission banned funding for projects using inverters from ‘high-risk’ countries, including China, across major EU financing instruments, including the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Investment Fund. 

“If public projects cannot procure Chinese-made inverters, Europe is more likely to source European-made equipment than Indian alternatives. However, if Indian companies establish manufacturing bases in Europe, it could open new opportunities for them,” Hryshko emphasises. 

Countries such as Italy and France are already tightening procurement rules, reinforcing the direction of localisation rather than diversification. 

Konda echoes the view that India aligns well with EU diversification goals but stressed that regulatory conditions will determine outcomes. 

“India neatly fits into the EU’s strategy to diversify clean energy supply chains. Aided by increased technological cooperation, India’s exports of solar modules to the EU may get a significant boost.” 

However, he adds that compliance requirements — including carbon accounting, certification and technical standards — could influence whether India gains meaningful market share. 

In comparison to China, Hryshko cautions that while India is rapidly scaling manufacturing capacity, it risks prioritising volume over technological depth.  

She points to a widening R&D gap versus Chinese manufacturers, noting that Chinese players typically invest around 4% of revenue into research and development, even during periods of financial strain. By contrast, Indian manufacturers — despite stronger profitability — are investing far less into innovation and product development. 

Early structural advantage for India 

Despite the challenges, India’s manufacturing expansion is creating structural export potential. Konda points to the scale mismatch between domestic demand and manufacturing capacity. 

“India has a significant solar module manufacturing capacity of about 210GW and a solar cell manufacturing capacity of 27GW by the end of 2025. Module manufacturing capacity is multi-fold higher than the record domestic solar capacity installed in 2025. The overcapacity leaves significant room for increasing exports,” Konda highlights. 

He also notes that India’s manufacturing costs remain 10%–15% higher than China due to scale inefficiencies, energy costs and vertical integration gaps — but argues that convergence is possible over time. 

According to the analysts, export strategy remains uncertain. While Europe is emerging as an attractive alternative to the US, Indian manufacturers are still heavily domestically focused.  

Expanding into Europe, Hryshko notes, requires long-term investment in local teams, marketing, regulatory engagement and relationship-building — efforts that do not deliver immediate returns. 

As a result, Indian exporters may continue to balance ambitions between Europe and other emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa and South America, where entry barriers are lower and price sensitivity is higher. 

The EU–India trade framework could support India’s long-term positioning in the global solar supply chain, but only if manufacturers shift focus from rapid capacity expansion towards technology, trust-building and sustained international engagement.