China to install up to 65GW of PV this year, average installs could reach 90GW by 2025

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email
The CPIA expects solar installations in China to reach up to 90GW by 2025. Image: Fotopedia.

China could install up to 65GW of solar this year, driven largely by a surge in demand for distributed solar installations, while average solar deployment could reach 90GW per year in the years leading up to 2025.

Those deployment projections were provided by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) at a conference in China this week, during which the trade body said solar installations this year would be between 55 – 65GW.

China installed 48.2GW of solar last year, according to figures published by the country’s National Energy Association, meaning the CPIA is forecasting growth of between 14.1% and 34.8% for 2021.

But those figures are slightly below other industry estimates issued earlier this year, with some forecasters expecting China to install as much as 70GW in 2021 as it accelerates renewables deployment to help the country progress towards a target of reaching net zero status by 2060.

Those estimates were, however, issued prior to an unprecedented spike in polysilicon prices, triggering price volatility throughout solar’s value chain. Polysilicon prices have more than doubled since the start of the year, with module prices rising by as much as 25% in the process.

This has led to widespread claims of utility-scale projects in China being pushed back towards the end of 2021 and into early 2022, with developers waiting for prices to stabilise before bringing projects in the country forward.

In a presentation discussing the solar development situation in China in 2021, which also noted the expected prominence of n-type technologies such as TOPCon and interdigitated back contact (IBC) cells this year, the CPIA said residential and distributed solar installations were expected to surge in the second half of the year, helping installs climb to what would constitute a record year for PV installs in China. The last time China installed close to 55GW was in 2017, when the country recorded 53GW of new solar development.

The CPIA expects solar installations to continue to grow each year out to 2025, with the range between its central and optimistic estimates also rising. Between 2021 and 2025, the CPIA expects China to install an average of between 70 – 90GW.

A slide within the CPIA’s presentation this week, documenting its forecasted solar installations up to 2025. Image: CPIA.

Earlier this year Chinese president Xi Jinping established the country’s 14th Five-Year Plan, which included the stated aim of eliminating emissions from its economy by 2060. Central to this is a rapid acceleration of both renewables manufacturing and deployment, with China aiming to have 11% of its power demand supplied by solar PV and wind this year.

Additional reporting by Carrie Xiao.

Read Next

October 14, 2021
US solar manufacturers behind the anti-dumping and countervailing duties petition have responded to a US government request for more information, stressing the case is “vital” to rebuilding US solar manufacturing.
PV Tech Premium
October 14, 2021
China Silicon Industry, the country’s trade association for the nonferrous metals industry, has warned that pricing for polysilicon chips has soared 13.2% to highs of RMB273/kg (US$42.42/kg), placing further pricing pressure on the solar industry.
October 12, 2021
China has started building work on the first 100GW phase of a solar and wind buildout that is likely to see hundreds of gigawatts deployed in the country's desert regions.
PV Tech Premium
October 12, 2021
The desire to invoke a solar manufacturing renaissance in Europe was one of the key points of discussion at Intersolar Europe 2021, with much talk of heightened demand for ‘Made in Europe’ products. But how far away is Europe from establishing a complete value chain on the continent, and what are the hurdles that remain? Liam Stoker reports.
October 12, 2021
The investment required to upgrade and expand transmission infrastructure across the world will be a key challenge as more renewables come online, consultancy EY has warned.
PV Tech Premium
October 11, 2021
China’s solar module market has returned from its National Day festival to yet another surge in module prices, which are now standing at two-year highs. PV Tech’s Carrie Xiao analyses the impacts of this most recent price increase as the industry steadies itself once again.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
October 19, 2021
BRISTOL, UK
Upcoming Webinars
November 10, 2021
8am (PST) | 5pm (CET)
Solar Media Events
December 1, 2021