Deutsche Bank guides solar industry overcapacity at 16% through 2017

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on reddit
Reddit
Share on email
Email

According to Deutsche Bank’s US market analyst Vishal Shah, strong PV manufacturing capacity expansion growth in the second half of 2016 and 2017 is expected to lead to a global 16% solar module oversupply through the period.

Shah said in an investor note that he raised 2016/17 global end-market demand estimates, due to strong growth in the first half of the year in China and strong growth outlook in the US and other emerging markets such as India in 2017.

However, near-term weakness in China and PV project push-outs in the US and weakness in the US residential market had created a demand lull. As a result, the Deutsche Bank analyst expects PV module prices to fall to the low US$0.40/W range in most markets globally compared to a range of mid 40c-mid 50c/W currently.

Shah said in the research note that the expected ‘demand pause’ would last until the second half of 2017. After this period he expected US demand momentum to pick-up, stabilising module prices and expected a sharp recovery in the US market from 2018 onwards.

Deutsche Bank expects global PV installs in 2016 to reach around 72.8GW, up from 53.7GW in the previous year. However, Deutsche Bank expects global PV installs to fall slightly from its upward revised 2016 forecast with installs in 2017 topping 71.8GW.

Read Next

June 2, 2021
The first phase of GCL System Integration Technology's (GCL-SI) 60GW module factory in Hefei, in China’s Anhui Province, is on track to start production this September.
May 13, 2021
The solar module manufacturing subsidiary of Italian utility Enel is aiming to scale up annual production capacity to 3GW in the second half of 2023, the company has confirmed.
April 28, 2021
Renewable energy group BayWa r.e. has opened what it claims is its largest PV warehouse in Europe yet in a bid to expand its distribution network in the continent.
PV Tech Premium
April 20, 2021
‘Solar Module Super League’ (SMSL) member Canadian Solar is planning to launch its first N-type heterojunction (HJ) PV modules in the second half of 2021, PV Tech can reveal.
April 14, 2021
Meyer Burger is on track to start shipments of its first heterojunction (HJ) solar modules made in Germany to distributors in July.

Subscribe to Newsletter

Upcoming Events

Upcoming Webinars
August 19, 2021
At 9am (PT) | 6pm (CEST)
Solar Media Events
August 25, 2021
Solar Media Events
October 6, 2021
Solar Media Events
October 19, 2021
BRISTOL, UK