Lux Research: PV module ASP recovery set as overcapacity diminishes

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email

Converging supply and demand dynamics will result in PV module manufacturers rapidly returning to profitability and prosperity, according to market research firm, Lux Research.

Continued market growth is a contributing factor but the most significant development is the end of chronic module oversupply that has produced two years of profitless prosperity.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

Lux Research expects overall module capacity to decrease to 58GW in 2015, while PV demand will reach 52GW in the same year, which will lead to module oversupply of only 12%, down from 100% in 2012.

Therefore margins are expected to recover by up to 10% by that timeframe, compare to negative margins over the last two years.

The market research firm expects the surviving suppliers will position themselves in the market for the long-term by investing in technologies to increase performance, lower costs, improve product quality, and enable new features.

However, the return to profitability and continued market growth are expected to attract a new wave of entrants.

Read Next

August 3, 2026
India’s electricity regulator, CERC, has proposed restoring interstate transmission charge waivers for delayed renewable energy projects.
Premium
August 3, 2026
India approves US$531.7 million Pradhan Mantri Surya Sarovar Yojana (PMSSY) scheme for 5GW floating solar PV with co-located BESS deployment.
August 3, 2026
Glenn Davis at Kiwa PI Berlin writes about why quality assurance has become one of the foundations for a solar PV project's bankability.
August 3, 2026
TotalEnergies has acquired a 4GW renewable energy portfolio from fellow oil major Shell, which includes 500MW of solar PV and wind assets.
August 3, 2026
A US court has upheld a FERC plan to speed up the permitting process for connecting energy projects to the grid.
August 3, 2026
IPP Sonnedix has closed a €730 million (US$841 million) financing for the refinancing, optimisation, and construction of renewable energy assets across Southern Europe.

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
October 13, 2026
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
Solar Media Events
November 3, 2026
Málaga, Spain
Solar Media Events
November 24, 2026
Warsaw, Poland
Solar Media Events
April 20, 2027
Istanbul, Türkiye