Lux Research: PV module ASP recovery set as overcapacity diminishes

Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Reddit
Email

Converging supply and demand dynamics will result in PV module manufacturers rapidly returning to profitability and prosperity, according to market research firm, Lux Research.

Continued market growth is a contributing factor but the most significant development is the end of chronic module oversupply that has produced two years of profitless prosperity.

This article requires Premium SubscriptionBasic (FREE) Subscription

Try Premium for just $1

  • Full premium access for the first month at only $1
  • Converts to an annual rate after 30 days unless cancelled
  • Cancel anytime during the trial period

Premium Benefits

  • Expert industry analysis and interviews
  • Digital access to PV Tech Power journal
  • Exclusive event discounts

Or get the full Premium subscription right away

Or continue reading this article for free

Lux Research expects overall module capacity to decrease to 58GW in 2015, while PV demand will reach 52GW in the same year, which will lead to module oversupply of only 12%, down from 100% in 2012.

Therefore margins are expected to recover by up to 10% by that timeframe, compare to negative margins over the last two years.

The market research firm expects the surviving suppliers will position themselves in the market for the long-term by investing in technologies to increase performance, lower costs, improve product quality, and enable new features.

However, the return to profitability and continued market growth are expected to attract a new wave of entrants.

Read Next

Premium
September 11, 2026
The financial difficulties of one of Europe’s best-known downstream solar companies highlight the faultlines running through the continent’s PV and energy storage business.
September 11, 2026
Plans for the US’ “first end-to-end” solar PV critical materials recovery and recycling facility have been announced.
September 11, 2026
This week's PV Chart of the Week profiles the technology breakdown of projected US solar module production capacity.
Premium
September 11, 2026
PV Talk: PERC has the potential to be a “workhorse” in the US cell manufacturing space, Suniva's Matt Card tells PV Tech Premium.
September 11, 2026
Italian power utility Enel has bought two solar PV projects in the US with a combined 625MW of generation capacity.
September 11, 2026
Georgia Power has secured Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC) approval for seven solar PPAs totalling 1,137MW under its CARES programmes.

Upcoming Events

Solar Media Events
October 13, 2026
San Francisco Bay Area, USA
Solar Media Events
November 3, 2026
Málaga, Spain
Solar Media Events
November 24, 2026
Warsaw, Poland
Solar Media Events
February 2, 2027
London, UK