Buyers should exercise ‘caution’ as solar component prices rise, says Intertek CEA

The report also notes that cell prices increased around 10% in the first half of this year, but expects short-term price growth to be “low” next year.

Much of these price increases come as leading Chinese manufacturers have sought to cut production to address the longstanding oversupply of modules to a number of markets around the world, which has triggered widespread module price competition. In the first half of this year, Chinese polysilicon production fell 43.8% year-on-year and wafer production declined 21.4% year-on-year. Meanwhile, cell and module production both increased, by 7.7% and 14.4% year-on-year, respectively.

Against a backdrop of reports from China of crackdowns on below-cost module sales and tax-rule changes, Johnson warned buyers not to read too much into individual companies’ announcements, however, and instead wait for a coherent national policy to drive manufacturing trends.

“Until a policy is finalised and publicised, buyers should remain cautious of supplier comments and refrain from agreeing to pre-emptive changes,” said Johnson. “However, as more of the market echoes the same concerns, buyers at this stage should prepare for future price increases and model scenarios where pricing changes as a result of these policies.

“In many instances, suppliers have already begun pushing for new contracts to reflect potential policy changes, which would allow for the pass-through of the policy impact to the buyer without the need for renegotiation (as seen in the case of VAT removal).”

Industry aligns on wafer sizes

Johnson also noted that the industry has “begun to align” on wafer sizes, with G12R wafers, measuring 182x210mm, becoming the most commonplace in the sector as they are smaller than the 210x210mm wafers that were considered too large, but made more power output gains than the smaller 182x182mm wafers.

The Intertek CEA report assigns risk levels to a number of wafer sizes, split across technology types, and all of the electrical components of G12R wafers are assigned a “low” risk rating, one of only two wafer sizes to score so positively for their electrical components.

The only aspect of the G12R wafer to receive a “high” risk rating is the mechanical performance for larger 715W modules, where “the current and longest length and width can make it more susceptible to mechanical load failures”, echoing conclusions drawn by David Devir of VDE Americas, who wrote for PV Tech Premium earlier this year that the trend of “supersized” modules has made them more vulnerable to glass fracturing.

PERC still popular

On the cell technology side, the Q3 data break out shipments and capacity by type. Even though new investments lean hard toward higher‑efficiency designs, you still see a noticeable share of production and shipments using PERC in 2025, especially in certain regions and segments. It looks less like a clean hand‑off and more like a gradual overlap between generations.

Johnson said: “Most of the world has already migrated to PV modules using tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) cells; however, some regions are just ramping up cell capacity, and suppliers have opted to start making PERC cells, given that the equipment ecosystem and production process parameters are very mature. In addition, some regions with ongoing IP conflicts also see manufacturers opting for more PERC over higher efficiency TOPCon cells.

“Buyers generally opt for the highest-efficiency product available. Still, there are key considerations as well, such as the premium for one-cell architecture vs. another, as well as the maturity of specific technologies. For example, while TOPCon back contact modules generally have higher front side efficiency than standard TOPCon products, for projects with high albedo (or surface reflectivity), standard TOPCon modules may close the performance gap with back contact variants, as back contact products generally have lower bifaciality.

“In addition, relatively newer technologies like back contact have smaller production runs, higher costs, and the premiums charged by manufacturers can eat into the benefits of purchasing a higher efficiency product. Finally, there’s product maturity, which can determine whether some financial institutions will lend to a project. Typically, newer technologies need to build a track record before achieving mass adoption across the industry.”

Future risks

Looking ahead, Johnson identified the rollout of new Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules in the US as a significant risk for the industry. This is due to the lack of guidance on how to interpret the new rules, which were introduced as part of a package of legislative measures passed over the summer, causing significant uncertainty and disruption to the US solar industry.

Johson said there were several “ambiguities” with current FEOC that require clarification: “For example, there are several open questions regarding the interpretation of ‘effective control’ terminology in cases where reliance on a specified foreign entity extends beyond a straightforward purchase of components, as this could impact FEOC risk differently for some parties than for others. Scenarios include situations where potential FEOCs supply software to products, if a FEOC commissions a qualified energy facility, or how specific warranties in long-term service agreements are structured.”